1、中(zhong)(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)(zhong)央(yang)國務院發布碳中(zhong)(zhong)和工作意見(jian)，清潔能源發展的頂層(ceng)設計(ji)落地

　　2021年10月(yue)24日(ri)，新華社發布中共中央國務(wu)院《關于完整(zheng)準確全面(mian)貫(guan)徹新發展理念做好碳(tan)達峰碳(tan)中和(he)工作(zuo)的(de)(de)意見(jian)》（以(yi)下簡稱工作(zuo)意見(jian)）。本次工作(zuo)意見(jian)是碳(tan)達峰碳(tan)中和(he)“1+N”政策體系中的(de)(de)“1”，即頂(ding)層設(she)計(ji)的(de)(de)部(bu)分。

　　新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)方面的(de)(de)表述是這份頂層設計最重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)環(huan)節。工(gong)作意見中強(qiang)(qiang)調(diao)：（1）要(yao)大力(li)(li)發(fa)展(zhan)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)等(deng)(deng)綠色低碳產業；（2）嚴格(ge)控制(zhi)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費，積極發(fa)展(zhan)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，包(bao)括風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)(deng)，不斷提高非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費比重(zhong)(zhong)。堅持集中式(shi)與分(fen)布式(shi)并舉，優先推動風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)就地就近開(kai)(kai)發(fa)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)；（3）統(tong)籌推進氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)“制(zhi)儲輸用(yong)(yong)(yong)”全(quan)(quan)鏈條發(fa)展(zhan)。加快推進抽水蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)規(gui)模化(hua)應用(yong)(yong)(yong)；（4）構建以新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)主體的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)對(dui)高比例可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)消(xiao)納和(he)調(diao)控能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)。推進電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)體制(zhi)改革(ge)，明確以消(xiao)納可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為(wei)主的(de)(de)增量配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)、微電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)和(he)分(fen)布式(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)市場主體地位(wei)。加快形成以儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)為(wei)基礎支撐的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)增電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)裝機發(fa)展(zhan)機制(zhi)；（5）從(cong)有利(li)(li)于(yu)節能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)角(jiao)度深化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)改革(ge)，理順輸配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)結構，全(quan)(quan)面放開(kai)(kai)競爭性環(huan)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)。我們認為(wei)本(ben)次碳達(da)峰(feng)(feng)碳中和(he)指導(dao)意見從(cong)政策端(duan)指明了發(fa)展(zhan)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)著重(zhong)(zhong)點，優先利(li)(li)好確定性最強(qiang)(qiang)的(de)(de)光(guang)伏(fu)、風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產業鏈，同時對(dui)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)產業鏈也有較強(qiang)(qiang)的(de)(de)促進作用(yong)(yong)(yong)。受益標的(de)(de)：（1）儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)：陽(yang)(yang)光(guang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、派能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)科技(ji)等(deng)(deng)；（2）光(guang)伏(fu)：隆基股(gu)份、通威股(gu)份等(deng)(deng)；（3）風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)：新(xin)(xin)強(qiang)(qiang)聯、中材科技(ji)等(deng)(deng)；（4）新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)：寧德時代(dai)、比亞迪等(deng)(deng)；（5）氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)：億華通、美錦能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)等(deng)(deng)。

　　2、新型電力(li)系統消納(na)能(neng)力(li)提升，儲能(neng)產業(ye)有望享受政策(ce)紅利

　　清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)較為(wei)不穩定，傳(chuan)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)消(xiao)納能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)有限，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)系統(tong)重(zhong)要性凸顯(xian)。新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)以新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為(wei)主(zhu)體，“風光儲(chu)(chu)”一(yi)體化協(xie)同發(fa)(fa)(fa)展，電(dian)(dian)網承(cheng)擔(dan)“輸、配(pei)、儲(chu)(chu)”的職能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)消(xiao)納能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)提(ti)高，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產業迎來政策(ce)紅(hong)利。我們認為(wei)未來儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)市(shi)場(chang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展潛力(li)較大，光伏(fu)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)設備等企業紛紛提(ti)前(qian)布局儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)市(shi)場(chang)，或(huo)將推動儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產業加快發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。

　　3、新能(neng)源消費比重提(ti)升，光伏(fu)、風能(neng)發電高(gao)增長基(ji)調已定

　　根據(ju)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)能(neng)源(yuan)局統計(ji)數據(ju)，截至(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)底，我國(guo)(guo)非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費占比為15.9％。根據(ju)本次工(gong)作意見，我們預計(ji)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費比重(zhong)(zhong)達(da)25％以(yi)上(shang)(shang)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)總裝機(ji)容量將達(da)到1200GW以(yi)上(shang)(shang)，2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費占比將達(da)80％。工(gong)作意見重(zhong)(zhong)申清潔能(neng)源(yuan)占比提(ti)(ti)高(gao)，政策利(li)好趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)明顯，產(chan)業各環節參與(yu)積極性提(ti)(ti)高(gao)。我們認為，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)產(chan)業鏈(lian)日趨(qu)(qu)成熟，疊加政策支持(chi)，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)招標規模大(da)幅上(shang)(shang)升，陸上(shang)(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)已邁入平價上(shang)(shang)網時代。海(hai)上(shang)(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)保持(chi)較高(gao)增(zeng)速，根據(ju)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)伙(huo)伴行動·零碳城市富美(mei)鄉村中(zhong)規劃，預計(ji)2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)海(hai)上(shang)(shang)風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)將實現全(quan)面平價，風(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設預期樂觀；光伏(fu)產(chan)業鏈(lian)當前硅料和EVA樹脂(zhi)等供需仍偏緊，2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)底至(zhi)2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)原材料產(chan)能(neng)逐步釋放，需求端確定性高(gao)，長期發展上(shang)(shang)行趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)明朗。

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