綠色發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)是全球共同的目(mu)(mu)標，綠色能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)正成為實現這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)目(mu)(mu)標的核心抓(zhua)手(shou)。據報(bao)道，中(zhong)國石化(hua)川維化(hua)工公司(si)的“萬(wan)噸級天然氣制乙炔成套技術”近日將(jiang)再次(ci)走出國門，出口烏(wu)茲別(bie)克(ke)斯(si)坦(tan)，為當地提(ti)供綠色能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)技術“中(zhong)國方(fang)案”，助力(li)“一(yi)(yi)帶一(yi)(yi)路”。此前(qian)，白鶴(he)灘水(shui)電(dian)站16臺機組全部投產(chan)，每天發(fa)(fa)電(dian)1億(yi)多度，長(chang)江(jiang)干(gan)流上(shang)的6座(zuo)巨型(xing)梯(ti)級水(shui)電(dian)站更是形成了世界最大(da)的“清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)走廊”。

　　當前，世界正處在從化石能源(yuan)(yuan)向新能源(yuan)(yuan)過渡的第(di)三次能源(yuan)(yuan)轉型中(zhong)，技術變革將(jiang)為(wei)能源(yuan)(yuan)產業發展(zhan)趨勢帶(dai)來(lai)哪些重要(yao)影響?一起關注(zhu)《人民論壇》獨家(jia)文章。

　　技術創新如何影響綠色能源發展?

　　“綠色(se)能(neng)源(yuan)”這一詞匯是(shi)伴隨著氣候變(bian)化(hua)和環境保護而逐(zhu)漸成(cheng)為關注的(de)(de)焦點(dian)，在學術(shu)上并(bing)無明確的(de)(de)科(ke)學界定，更多(duo)是(shi)作為一種表達(da)政治(zhi)政策的(de)(de)話(hua)語而出現在政府(fu)和企業的(de)(de)規(gui)劃(hua)報(bao)告(gao)、媒(mei)體的(de)(de)新聞報(bao)道(dao)中，與“綠色(se)新政”“綠色(se)發展(zhan)”“綠色(se)經濟”等(deng)相(xiang)呼(hu)應(ying)。從自然科(ke)學話(hua)語視角(jiao)來看，能(neng)源(yuan)本身(shen)并(bing)無黑色(se)能(neng)源(yuan)、綠色(se)能(neng)源(yuan)等(deng)色(se)彩之分(fen)，主要是(shi)因人類生(sheng)產消(xiao)費能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)方式不同而導致的(de)(de)外部(bu)性(xing)效果(guo)不同。全(quan)球(qiu)環境政治(zhi)興起后，煤炭(tan)被(bei)冠以“黑煤”的(de)(de)身(shen)份，成(cheng)為污染的(de)(de)代名詞，盡管經過幾十年的(de)(de)清(qing)潔化(hua)技(ji)術(shu)創新，煤炭(tan)的(de)(de)高碳(tan)排放(fang)依(yi)然讓煤電(dian)站成(cheng)為國際氣候合作中極力限(xian)制的(de)(de)對象(xiang)。未來，當二氧化(hua)碳(tan)捕集(ji)、利(li)用與封存(CCUS)技(ji)術(shu)實現大規(gui)模商業應(ying)用時，煤炭(tan)利(li)用不再(zai)污染環境，也就可以擺脫“黑煤”身(shen)份。

　　與綠(lv)色(se)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)概(gai)念相(xiang)近的(de)是(shi)清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、低碳能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。本(ben)文中的(de)綠(lv)色(se)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主要指(zhi)在現有技術條件下可(ke)大規模(mo)商業開(kai)發的(de)、對環境友好的(de)、可(ke)持續的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，主要包括太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、水(shui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、生(sheng)物質能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、海(hai)洋(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、地(di)熱能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、綠(lv)氫等。核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)種頗具爭(zheng)議的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，相(xiang)對傳統能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，核(he)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)種新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠提(ti)供穩定可(ke)靠低碳的(de)電力供應，但以核(he)裂變方式運行的(de)核(he)電站會產生(sheng)高放(fang)射性廢(fei)料，存在安全(quan)隱患，而核(he)聚(ju)變產生(sheng)的(de)唯一(yi)(yi)廢(fei)料氦(hai)氣不(bu)具有放(fang)射性，被(bei)視(shi)(shi)為人類未來的(de)“終極能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)”，本(ben)文將核(he)聚(ju)變能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)也視(shi)(shi)為綠(lv)色(se)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。

　　綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)是未(wei)來能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)發展趨(qu)勢，迎(ying)合(he)了第(di)三(san)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉型的(de)低碳化和清潔化需求。同時，第(di)三(san)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉型帶動能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)特(te)別是電力(li)的(de)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)與互聯，給綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)提(ti)出了更多的(de)技術創(chuang)新(xin)要(yao)求，而正是因為綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)持續(xu)技術創(chuang)新(xin)的(de)累積效(xiao)應，使(shi)得全球(qiu)的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構向著更為低碳、清潔的(de)方向發展。

　　太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電產業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)就是(shi)一(yi)個例證(zheng)。1905年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)愛因(yin)斯坦(tan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現了光(guang)(guang)(guang)電效(xiao)應，1953年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)美國(guo)貝爾實驗室(shi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)明(ming)實驗裝備驗證(zheng)了光(guang)(guang)(guang)電效(xiao)應，1973年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)得(de)以商業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)，現代太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)開(kai)啟發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)步伐(fa)，20世(shi)紀90年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)代德(de)國(guo)逐漸形(xing)成(cheng)昂貴的(de)(de)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)市(shi)場(chang)，21世(shi)紀初(chu)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)得(de)到巨額投資，中(zhong)國(guo)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)電板(ban)制造商開(kai)始(shi)快速增(zeng)加，太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電池板(ban)效(xiao)率開(kai)始(shi)大(da)幅提(ti)高(gao)，電池板(ban)的(de)(de)價格大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang)，2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)成(cheng)本(ben)已(yi)經低(di)于傳統燃煤發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電。太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)完成(cheng)了“發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現→發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)明(ming)→技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)→規模擴(kuo)散”全(quan)(quan)過(guo)程(cheng)。需要說明(ming)的(de)(de)是(shi)，本(ben)文中(zhong)的(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)是(shi)指創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)全(quan)(quan)過(guo)程(cheng)，包括“研究與開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)→新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)現與發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)明(ming)(新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)產品、新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)工藝(yi))→商業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)→創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)擴(kuo)散”的(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)過(guo)程(cheng)。技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)革新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)與技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)突(tu)(tu)破(po)都屬(shu)于技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)，前(qian)者(zhe)是(shi)漸進的(de)(de)、后(hou)者(zhe)是(shi)突(tu)(tu)變(bian)的(de)(de)。全(quan)(quan)球太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電產業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)壯大(da)，既(ji)有技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)、成(cheng)本(ben)大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)(de)因(yin)素，也(ye)是(shi)全(quan)(quan)球產業(ye)(ye)(ye)政策體系推(tui)動(dong)的(de)(de)結果。2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)球太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電量已(yi)超過(guo)1000TWh，相(xiang)較于2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)32.2TWh，實現了31倍(bei)的(de)(de)增(zeng)長。光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)正在成(cheng)為世(shi)界上大(da)部分地區新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電成(cheng)本(ben)最低(di)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電方式之一(yi)，預(yu)計這(zhe)將推(tui)動(dong)未來幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)投資。

　　風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能發電(dian)產(chan)業(ye)的(de)發展也提供了例證。人類利用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能的(de)歷史久遠，20世紀70年代現代風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能產(chan)業(ye)開始出(chu)現，并于21世紀初得(de)到迅速增(zeng)(zeng)長。推動風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能發電(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長的(de)因素首先是技術創(chuang)新，越來越高的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)塔(ta)、更加智能復雜(za)的(de)控制系統和更精準有效的(de)裝機與天氣(qi)預測模型，反映(ying)出(chu)持續(xu)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)技術創(chuang)新。如太陽(yang)能發電(dian)一樣，全球產(chan)業(ye)政策體系在風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)電(dian)產(chan)業(ye)發展中發揮(hui)了較大(da)的(de)推動作用(yong)。2021年全球風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能發電(dian)量已超過1870TWh，相較于2010年的(de)342.7TWh，實現了5.5倍的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長，風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)能領(ling)先于其它非水可再生能源，2021年發電(dian)量幾乎是所(suo)有其他可再生能源發電(dian)量的(de)總和。

　　技術創新和(he)商業規(gui)模化(hua)等多種因素促使綠色能(neng)源發電效(xiao)(xiao)率提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)、成本下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)、裝(zhuang)機量快速增加，使得(de)第三次(ci)世界能(neng)源低(di)碳清潔(jie)轉型的趨勢更加明顯。當前多種綠色能(neng)源發電的度電成本已經低(di)于(yu)燃煤(mei)發電。根據中(zhong)金公司發布的研究報告，核電、光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)、風電、水電度電成本較燃煤(mei)發電分別低(di)5%、17%、25%和(he)34%。2010年(nian)—2020年(nian)間(jian)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發電成本下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)89%，受益于(yu)規(gui)模效(xiao)(xiao)應、新材料替換和(he)效(xiao)(xiao)率提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，未(wei)來10年(nian)成本有望(wang)再縮減一半，到2060年(nian)，光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)發電成本有望(wang)降(jiang)(jiang)至較火(huo)電低(di)68%，成為(wei)最(zui)便宜的綠色電源。

　　能源轉型成功的關鍵是什么?

　　建(jian)立以儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)為核心(xin)的(de)(de)多種綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互補體系是第三(san)次世(shi)界(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型的(de)(de)發展方向，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)、綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)網等領域的(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)突破(po)將(jiang)是能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型成功的(de)(de)關鍵，先進核能(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)、CCUS技(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)創(chuang)新(xin)將(jiang)帶來長期收益(yi)，而(er)可控核聚變的(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)突破(po)與商業化將(jiang)引發新(xin)的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)革(ge)命。

　　就(jiu)當前技(ji)術創(chuang)新和商業化水(shui)平而言，太陽能(neng)(neng)、風能(neng)(neng)是(shi)(shi)全球裝機(ji)最(zui)多也是(shi)(shi)前景最(zui)好的(de)(de)(de)綠(lv)(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，但(dan)是(shi)(shi)太陽能(neng)(neng)和風能(neng)(neng)因受自然條件影響存在產能(neng)(neng)波(bo)動大(da)、隨機(ji)性(xing)(xing)高的(de)(de)(de)特點，屬于(yu)間歇性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構中(zhong)間歇性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)份額的(de)(de)(de)增加，會對電網穩定平衡性(xing)(xing)造成巨(ju)大(da)壓力，給間歇性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電價帶來(lai)波(bo)動性(xing)(xing)，同時(shi)也容易造成大(da)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)棄光(guang)、棄風現(xian)象。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術是(shi)(shi)解決綠(lv)(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)有(you)效利(li)用的(de)(de)(de)關鍵(jian)，可作為電網與供(gong)熱系統、燃氣網絡、電氣化交通網等的(de)(de)(de)連接橋梁，對改善間歇性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)波(bo)動性(xing)(xing)和實(shi)現(xian)電力供(gong)需的(de)(de)(de)一致性(xing)(xing)非常重要(yao)。在未來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)低碳能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統中(zhong)，綠(lv)(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)多種靈活性(xing)(xing)組合，將(jiang)會成為最(zui)具經(jing)濟性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)解決方案。因此(ci)，在未來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發中(zhong)，技(ji)術創(chuang)新的(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)目標是(shi)(shi)實(shi)現(xian)綠(lv)(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)給端(duan)、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)端(duan)的(de)(de)(de)降本增效和靈活可靠，發展以儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)為核心的(de)(de)(de)多種綠(lv)(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互補體系。

　　儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)分(fen)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)(xue)(xue)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)與物理(li)(li)(li)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)等(deng)(deng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)(xue)(xue)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)包(bao)括液流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)、鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)、鉛炭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)、鈉基電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)等(deng)(deng)，具(ju)有(you)(you)位置環境(jing)不受限的(de)靈活優勢，在(zai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、輸(shu)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)過(guo)程中均可進(jin)行規模化(hua)應用(yong)(yong)，更(geng)有(you)(you)利于(yu)綠色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)消(xiao)納。物理(li)(li)(li)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)包(bao)括儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)熱，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有(you)(you)抽水(shui)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)、壓縮空氣(qi)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)、飛輪儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)、超(chao)導儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)(deng)，相較于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)(xue)(xue)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，物理(li)(li)(li)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)具(ju)有(you)(you)規模大、成本低、壽命長(chang)、環保等(deng)(deng)特(te)點(dian)，但較易受位置與環境(jing)限制。從技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)特(te)點(dian)和(he)(he)當(dang)前發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)來看，物理(li)(li)(li)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)更(geng)適合于(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)輸(shu)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)過(guo)程，化(hua)學(xue)(xue)(xue)(xue)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)更(geng)多應用(yong)(yong)于(yu)交通領域，尤(you)其(qi)是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)需求。綠色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)組合對傳統(tong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)形成越(yue)來越(yue)強的(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)，競爭(zheng)(zheng)結果主要取決于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，同時電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)回收與處(chu)理(li)(li)(li)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)也會(hui)影(ying)響這一(yi)組合的(de)未(wei)來發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。當(dang)前在(zai)地緣(yuan)政(zheng)治和(he)(he)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)(quan)考量增加的(de)形勢下，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)作為礦物密集能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，鋰、鎳、錳、鈷(gu)、稀土等(deng)(deng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)原料(liao)的(de)獲取也會(hui)影(ying)響電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)學(xue)(xue)(xue)(xue)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)創(chuang)新和(he)(he)產(chan)業發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。2023年(nian)4月，中關(guan)村(cun)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)產(chan)業技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)聯盟發(fa)(fa)(fa)布的(de)《儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)產(chan)業研究白皮書2023》顯示(shi)，截(jie)至2022年(nian)年(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)球已投(tou)運電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)項目累(lei)計裝機(ji)規模237.2GW，其(qi)中抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)累(lei)計裝機(ji)規模占比為79.3%，鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)在(zai)新型儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)中的(de)累(lei)計裝機(ji)占比為94.4%。

　　氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)一(yi)(yi)種新型(xing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)方式，具有(you)調節(jie)周期長、儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)容(rong)量大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)優勢(shi)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)促進可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納、電網調峰等應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)場景中(zhong)(zhong)潛力巨(ju)大(da)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)是(shi)宇宙(zhou)中(zhong)(zhong)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)量最為(wei)豐富的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)元素，也(ye)是(shi)普通(tong)(tong)燃料(liao)(liao)中(zhong)(zhong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量密(mi)度最高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)綠(lv)色能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)之(zhi)一(yi)(yi)，綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)因其綠(lv)色高(gao)(gao)效(xiao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特點而被稱(cheng)為(wei)21世(shi)紀的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“終極能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)”。然(ran)而因為(wei)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)創新少和(he)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)較(jiao)高(gao)(gao)等原因，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)領域的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市場規模一(yi)(yi)直有(you)限。在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)全球氣候加(jia)(jia)速變(bian)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情境下，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)逐漸被視為(wei)實(shi)現(xian)碳中(zhong)(zhong)和(he)目(mu)標的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵燃料(liao)(liao)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)全鏈(lian)條(tiao)包括上(shang)(shang)、中(zhong)(zhong)、下游(you)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)游(you)為(wei)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)，目(mu)前世(shi)界上(shang)(shang)多(duo)數氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣來自對化(hua)石(shi)燃料(liao)(liao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)加(jia)(jia)工，屬于污染的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“灰(hui)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)過(guo)程中(zhong)(zhong)采用(yong)(yong)碳捕(bu)集和(he)封存(CCS)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)可(ke)(ke)使“灰(hui)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”脫碳后變(bian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)“藍氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)利用(yong)(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理想狀態(tai)是(shi)“綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”，即利用(yong)(yong)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)電解水制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)。目(mu)前世(shi)界大(da)部(bu)分地區(qu)生(sheng)產(chan)“藍氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)低(di)(di)于“綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”。隨(sui)著技(ji)術(shu)(shu)和(he)制(zhi)(zhi)造效(xiao)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)，可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)電解槽的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)價格將降低(di)(di)，這(zhe)種成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)差異(yi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)未來會進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)縮小。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)游(you)為(wei)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運(yun)(yun)(yun)，有(you)氣態(tai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)、液(ye)(ye)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)和(he)固態(tai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)等儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運(yun)(yun)(yun)方式。高(gao)(gao)壓氣態(tai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運(yun)(yun)(yun)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)已商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)，具有(you)體量小、距離(li)(li)短和(he)靈活性高(gao)(gao)等特征。液(ye)(ye)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)和(he)固態(tai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量密(mi)度極高(gao)(gao)，運(yun)(yun)(yun)輸便捷，是(shi)未來實(shi)現(xian)大(da)規模氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運(yun)(yun)(yun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方向(xiang)。盡管當前液(ye)(ye)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)和(he)固態(tai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)運(yun)(yun)(yun)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)有(you)了較(jiao)大(da)進步(bu)，但(dan)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)密(mi)度、安全性和(he)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)之(zhi)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)平(ping)衡關系(xi)尚未解決，離(li)(li)大(da)規模商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)還有(you)距離(li)(li)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下游(you)為(wei)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)燃料(liao)(liao)既可(ke)(ke)以替代(dai)天然(ran)氣作為(wei)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)和(he)取暖燃料(liao)(liao)，又可(ke)(ke)以為(wei)重型(xing)卡車和(he)輪船(chuan)提(ti)(ti)供能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，還可(ke)(ke)以通(tong)(tong)過(guo)“綠(lv)電→氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)→電”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)轉化(hua)方式成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)新型(xing)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)手段。英國石(shi)油(you)公司(BP)預測(ce)，2030年全球對低(di)(di)碳氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(藍氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)和(he)綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing))的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)30Mtpa—50Mtpa之(zhi)間(jian)，2030年—2050年間(jian)全球對低(di)(di)碳氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)求將增(zeng)長10倍(bei)，大(da)約(yue)為(wei)300Mtpa—460Mtpa。2030年全球綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)占低(di)(di)碳氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)60%左右(you)，2050年將增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)到65%左右(you)。“藍氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”作為(wei)“綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)重要補充提(ti)(ti)供其余大(da)部(bu)分氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)。

　　儲能(neng)和(he)氫(qing)能(neng)的(de)技(ji)術創新(xin)前景可以從(cong)專(zhuan)利申請(qing)(qing)中看到趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)。以專(zhuan)利合(he)作條約(yue)(PCT)形式提出的(de)國際(ji)申請(qing)(qing)具有(you)較(jiao)高的(de)價值(zhi)和(he)地(di)位(wei)，代表(biao)著技(ji)術創新(xin)的(de)最新(xin)成果，也是未來產業發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)風(feng)向標。從(cong)2000年—2020年間專(zhuan)利申請(qing)(qing)看，儲能(neng)技(ji)術、氫(qing)能(neng)技(ji)術、燃(ran)料(liao)電(dian)池、智能(neng)電(dian)網等位(wei)居綠色技(ji)術PCT專(zhuan)利申請(qing)(qing)前列(lie)，并在近年來呈現(xian)逐年增加趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)，預計未來儲能(neng)和(he)氫(qing)能(neng)將成為能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)領(ling)域競爭(zheng)的(de)重點(dian)技(ji)術。可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)領(ling)域的(de)PCT專(zhuan)利申請(qing)(qing)量在2012年達到頂(ding)峰后，開始出現(xian)逐年下降趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)(shi)(shi)。

　　在所有能(neng)源利用技術的(de)(de)(de)創新前景中，核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)技術的(de)(de)(de)突破可(ke)(ke)能(neng)引(yin)發(fa)(fa)劇烈的(de)(de)(de)沖擊效應。核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)使(shi)用氘和(he)氚，反應后產生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)氦氣不具(ju)有放(fang)射性(xing)，氘可(ke)(ke)以(yi)從(cong)海(hai)水(shui)中提取，一升(sheng)海(hai)水(shui)中的(de)(de)(de)氘聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)釋放(fang)能(neng)量(liang)達到(dao)300升(sheng)汽油燃燒當量(liang)。人類從(cong)1952年(nian)(nian)第一顆氫(qing)彈爆(bao)炸后就(jiu)開始了(le)(le)(le)可(ke)(ke)控(kong)核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)的(de)(de)(de)研究(jiu)，此后發(fa)(fa)明了(le)(le)(le)托卡馬(ma)克裝置，2007年(nian)(nian)成立了(le)(le)(le)國(guo)際熱核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)實(shi)(shi)驗堆組織(ITER)，2021年(nian)(nian)在中國(guo)，全(quan)超導托卡馬(ma)克核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)實(shi)(shi)驗裝置(EAST)成功實(shi)(shi)現了(le)(le)(le)可(ke)(ke)重復的(de)(de)(de)1.2億攝(she)氏(shi)度101秒和(he)1.6億攝(she)氏(shi)度20秒等離子(zi)體(ti)運行，2022年(nian)(nian)中國(guo)新一代“人造太(tai)陽”(HL-2M)裝置等離子(zi)體(ti)電流突破100萬安培(1兆安)，同年(nian)(nian)美國(guo)科研人員在勞倫斯利弗莫爾國(guo)家實(shi)(shi)驗室“國(guo)家點燃實(shi)(shi)驗設施”進(jin)行了(le)(le)(le)歷(li)史(shi)上首次可(ke)(ke)控(kong)核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)實(shi)(shi)驗，實(shi)(shi)現了(le)(le)(le)凈能(neng)量(liang)增益的(de)(de)(de)技術突破。經過幾十(shi)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)研究(jiu)，全(quan)球(qiu)可(ke)(ke)控(kong)核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)技術創新已取得長(chang)足(zu)進(jin)步，私人資本大(da)舉進(jin)入可(ke)(ke)控(kong)核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)領域，但真正商(shang)業(ye)化(hua)運行可(ke)(ke)能(neng)還需要幾十(shi)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)努(nu)力。可(ke)(ke)以(yi)預見的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)，一旦可(ke)(ke)控(kong)核聚(ju)(ju)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)技術實(shi)(shi)現突破和(he)大(da)規模商(shang)業(ye)化(hua)，人類現有的(de)(de)(de)用能(neng)結(jie)構將會發(fa)(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)顛(dian)覆性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)變(bian)(bian)(bian)(bian)化(hua)。

　　自(zi)工業革命以來，全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石燃料的(de)(de)(de)(de)使(shi)用量(liang)隨著(zhu)GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)增長而增長，幾十年(nian)來化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石燃料在全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)能(neng)源結(jie)構中占比一直高居(ju)80%，即使(shi)到(dao)2050年(nian)仍(reng)將略高于60%。全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)與(yu)能(neng)源相(xiang)關的(de)(de)(de)(de)二氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)排放量(liang)將在2025年(nian)達(da)到(dao)370億(yi)噸的(de)(de)(de)(de)峰值，到(dao)2050年(nian)回落(luo)到(dao)320億(yi)噸。在這一過程中，CCUS技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)將發揮重要(yao)作用。CCUS技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)是指可(ke)以在實現全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)能(neng)源和氣候目(mu)標方面發揮重要(yao)和多(duo)樣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)作用的(de)(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)，該技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)通(tong)過化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)學吸附(fu)、物理(li)分離等技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)，從(cong)使(shi)用化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石或生物質燃料的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)型發電或工業設施捕(bu)獲(huo)二氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)，也可(ke)以直接(jie)從(cong)大(da)(da)氣中捕(bu)獲(huo)。捕(bu)獲(huo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)二氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)將通(tong)過管(guan)道、船(chuan)舶、鐵(tie)路(lu)或卡車進行壓縮和運輸(shu)，以待后續應用，或注入深(shen)層(ceng)(ceng)地質構造(包括(kuo)枯(ku)竭的(de)(de)(de)(de)油氣藏或鹽化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)層(ceng)(ceng))永久儲(chu)存(cun)。目(mu)前，全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)CCUS設施每年(nian)可(ke)以捕(bu)獲(huo)超過40Mt的(de)(de)(de)(de)二氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)。CCUS的(de)(de)(de)(de)貢獻將隨著(zhu)時間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)推移而增長，并擴(kuo)展(zhan)到(dao)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)能(neng)源系(xi)統的(de)(de)(de)(de)幾乎所有部分。

　　能源產業發展趨勢前瞻

　　技(ji)術對能源的發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)具(ju)有關鍵性影響(xiang)，具(ju)體(ti)到能源產業的發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)還需(xu)要考量(liang)資源、人(ren)(ren)口、氣(qi)候、環境、政治(zhi)與(yu)經(jing)濟(ji)等其它因素(su)。具(ju)體(ti)而言(yan)，資源的蘊藏和經(jing)濟(ji)可(ke)采、人(ren)(ren)口對能源的需(xu)求與(yu)偏好、環境對能源活(huo)動的容納度、政治(zhi)訴求與(yu)政策體(ti)系、經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)水平與(yu)趨勢等，都(dou)對能源產業發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)施(shi)加各種影響(xiang)。技(ji)術創新(xin)主要是圍繞上(shang)述(shu)需(xu)求而開(kai)展(zhan)，并通過(guo)技(ji)術擴散發(fa)(fa)揮作(zuo)用(yong)。

　　▲從資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與環境(jing)角度來看，化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)可再(zai)生，只(zhi)會逐漸減少。歷史上屢次出現的(de)(de)“石(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)峰(feng)值論”就是(shi)對(dui)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)枯(ku)竭的(de)(de)擔憂(you)(you)。圍繞化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)技術創新時間最長、底蘊最厚、成(cheng)果(guo)最多，但依(yi)然擺脫不(bu)了(le)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)終會枯(ku)竭的(de)(de)命運，盡(jin)管頁巖氣(油(you)(you))革命延緩了(le)這一進程。化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)使用過程中(zhong)會排放大量的(de)(de)二氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)碳，這也被(bei)認為是(shi)造成(cheng)當今氣候變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)罪魁禍首(shou)。人類對(dui)石(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)的(de)(de)擔憂(you)(you)由原來的(de)(de)供(gong)應峰(feng)值變成(cheng)了(le)需(xu)(xu)求峰(feng)值——對(dui)石(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)的(de)(de)消費何時才能達峰(feng)?枯(ku)竭趨勢和(he)高碳排放促使化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)終將從主(zhu)(zhu)導性(xing)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)地位退下，被(bei)迅速崛起的(de)(de)可再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)替代。可再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)擁有契合當今世界能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)需(xu)(xu)求的(de)(de)多種(zhong)優勢：不(bu)會枯(ku)竭、清潔、低碳等，將會成(cheng)為未來能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構(gou)中(zhong)的(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)導力量。

　　IEA預(yu)測，在(zai)(zai)(zai)“現行(xing)政策情(qing)景(jing)”中(zhong)，化(hua)石(shi)燃(ran)料在(zai)(zai)(zai)全球能(neng)源結構中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)占比將(jiang)(jiang)從(cong)目(mu)前的(de)(de)(de)80%下降至2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)60%。煤(mei)炭需求將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)未(wei)來(lai)(lai)幾年(nian)(nian)內達峰，石(shi)油需求將(jiang)(jiang)在(zai)(zai)(zai)21世紀30年(nian)(nian)代中(zhong)期達峰，天然氣需求在(zai)(zai)(zai)2021年(nian)(nian)至2030年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)增(zeng)加約5%，隨后將(jiang)(jiang)趨于穩定(ding)。在(zai)(zai)(zai)“已(yi)公布的(de)(de)(de)承諾(nuo)情(qing)景(jing)”中(zhong)，電(dian)力在(zai)(zai)(zai)能(neng)源消費中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)占比將(jiang)(jiang)從(cong)2021年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)20%上升到2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)39%，可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量在(zai)(zai)(zai)總發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)比重將(jiang)(jiang)從(cong)2021年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)28%上升至2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)80%，化(hua)石(shi)燃(ran)料發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量占比則(ze)從(cong)2021年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)62%下降至2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)26%。IEA預(yu)測，未(wei)來(lai)(lai)五年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)太(tai)陽能(neng)光(guang)伏產(chan)能(neng)將(jiang)(jiang)逐年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加，2026年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)超過(guo)(guo)天然氣，2027年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)(jiang)超過(guo)(guo)煤(mei)炭，成為(wei)全球最大的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)力來(lai)(lai)源。

　　可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)能(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加為(wei)世界能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)清潔低(di)碳轉型帶來了(le)(le)機遇，但隨著可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占比提(ti)高，“可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)+儲能(neng)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)組合對儲能(neng)電(dian)(dian)池的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)原料來源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)提(ti)出了(le)(le)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)挑戰(zhan)，未來的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)礦(kuang)產(chan)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量和價格將會迅(xun)速增(zeng)(zeng)長。電(dian)(dian)池中鋰的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)使用(yong)推(tui)動(dong)了(le)(le)鋰需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長，到(dao)2040年鋰的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)將增(zeng)(zeng)長25倍至60倍，其中電(dian)(dian)池用(yong)途占鋰總需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)85%—95%。鎳的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)總需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)也(ye)將增(zeng)(zeng)長2.5倍至4倍，其中65%—80%的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長是由于(yu)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車(che)電(dian)(dian)池使用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加。全球(qiu)關(guan)鍵(jian)礦(kuang)石(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)分(fen)布(bu)集中于(yu)少(shao)數(shu)幾個國(guo)家(jia)，有些(xie)礦(kuang)石(shi)(shi)僅分(fen)布(bu)在兩三個國(guo)家(jia)，擁有電(dian)(dian)池礦(kuang)物豐富(fu)儲藏或生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)加工技術能(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)和企(qi)業(ye)未來將顯著獲益(yi)，而大國(guo)對關(guan)鍵(jian)礦(kuang)產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)競爭博弈和生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)民族主義(yi)行為(wei)有可能(neng)進一步加劇供(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)失(shi)衡(heng)，綠(lv)色關(guan)鍵(jian)金(jin)屬供(gong)應(ying)鏈成為(wei)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)地緣政治關(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)焦點。全球(qiu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)加速轉型導致綠(lv)色關(guan)鍵(jian)金(jin)屬需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)長期持續上升(sheng)，礦(kuang)產(chan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)豐富(fu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)將會獲得(de)更多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)權力。

　　▲世界能(neng)(neng)源需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)增長還受到人(ren)口和經(jing)濟增長的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。伴隨著(zhu)全(quan)球(qiu)人(ren)口增加(jia)和經(jing)濟進步，能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)持續增長，能(neng)(neng)源質(zhi)量偏好增多。聯合(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)統計(ji)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據顯示，截(jie)至2022年(nian)11月(yue)，全(quan)球(qiu)人(ren)口已達(da)80億，自2010年(nian)以來增加(jia)了(le)10億，自1998年(nian)以來增加(jia)了(le)20億。預計(ji)到2050年(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)人(ren)口將增加(jia)至97億，并可能(neng)(neng)在21世紀80年(nian)代中(zhong)(zhong)期達(da)到近(jin)104億的(de)(de)(de)峰(feng)值。人(ren)口增加(jia)、城市化步伐(fa)加(jia)快及經(jing)濟增長為能(neng)(neng)源生(sheng)產提供(gong)了(le)持續的(de)(de)(de)動力。根據BP能(neng)(neng)源數(shu)(shu)(shu)據庫公(gong)布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)數(shu)(shu)(shu)據，經(jing)計(ji)算所得，全(quan)球(qiu)一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)從2000年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)396.88艾焦耳(er)上升到2021年(nian)的(de)(de)(de)595.15艾焦耳(er)，增長近(jin)1.5倍。此外，經(jing)濟發(fa)展程(cheng)度(du)(du)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)對能(neng)(neng)源利用(yong)和能(neng)(neng)源轉型(xing)(xing)有(you)著(zhu)不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)態度(du)(du)和意(yi)義。發(fa)展中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)在討論能(neng)(neng)源轉型(xing)(xing)方案時往(wang)往(wang)低(di)估面臨的(de)(de)(de)挑戰和困難，一(yi)些發(fa)展必需(xu)(xu)的(de)(de)(de)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源卻被發(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)認為是污(wu)染的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源。經(jing)濟發(fa)展程(cheng)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)不一(yi)致影響(xiang)了(le)發(fa)展中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)與發(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)之(zhi)間(jian)開展氣候國(guo)(guo)(guo)際合(he)作(zuo)的(de)(de)(de)成(cheng)效(xiao)，能(neng)(neng)源轉型(xing)(xing)變(bian)成(cheng)了(le)發(fa)展權之(zhi)爭。

　　▲隨(sui)著極端天氣(qi)增加(jia)，氣(qi)候(hou)變(bian)化已成為(wei)全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)各國(guo)政府的(de)核(he)心議題之一(yi)。目(mu)前(qian)聯合國(guo)應(ying)對氣(qi)候(hou)變(bian)化的(de)政策(ce)框架(jia)主要(yao)(yao)表現(xian)(xian)為(wei)實(shi)施碳中和(he)(he)行動計劃。截至目(mu)前(qian)，全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)超過130個國(guo)家和(he)(he)地區提出了凈零(ling)排放或碳中和(he)(he)的(de)目(mu)標(biao)。在全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)氣(qi)候(hou)變(bian)化與碳中和(he)(he)的(de)結構性(xing)壓力(li)下，各國(guo)政府既(ji)要(yao)(yao)努力(li)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)零(ling)碳目(mu)標(biao)，又要(yao)(yao)考慮本(ben)(ben)國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)(quan)和(he)(he)經濟發展韌性(xing)。因此，在設計制(zhi)定本(ben)(ben)國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)政策(ce)時(shi)，核(he)心是加(jia)快推(tui)進(jin)能(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)碳減排目(mu)標(biao)，包括提升可再生能(neng)源(yuan)占比，提高能(neng)源(yuan)利用(yong)效率，建設新核(he)電(dian)機組，推(tui)進(jin)CCUS技術(shu)的(de)部署等(deng)。除了增加(jia)公共資金(jin)投入(ru)外，政府還需制(zhi)定政策(ce)，鼓勵民(min)間(jian)資本(ben)(ben)參與清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)領(ling)域。IEA指出，預計到(dao)(dao)2030年清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)投資將從(cong)2021年的(de)1.3萬(wan)億美元(yuan)上升至2萬(wan)億美元(yuan)，但是如(ru)果要(yao)(yao)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)2050年凈零(ling)排放目(mu)標(biao)，這一(yi)投資額到(dao)(dao)2030年需達到(dao)(dao)4萬(wan)億美元(yuan)。

　　一(yi)些發達經濟體為(wei)未來十年新制定(ding)了(le)政策目標和(he)政府計(ji)(ji)劃，為(wei)加(jia)速清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發展奠(dian)定(ding)了(le)基調，比(bi)如，美國(guo)出(chu)臺的(de)《通脹削減法(fa)案》、歐(ou)盟(meng)(meng)發布的(de)重(zhong)新賦能(neng)(neng)(neng)歐(ou)洲計(ji)(ji)劃、澳大利亞出(chu)臺的(de)氣候變(bian)化(hua)法(fa)案等。歐(ou)盟(meng)(meng)發布的(de)重(zhong)新賦能(neng)(neng)(neng)歐(ou)洲計(ji)(ji)劃以保(bao)障(zhang)歐(ou)盟(meng)(meng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源安全(quan)為(wei)核心(xin)，通過節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、能(neng)(neng)(neng)源進口多樣化(hua)和(he)加(jia)速清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源轉(zhuan)型以提升能(neng)(neng)(neng)源系統(tong)抗風險能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。同時(shi)，歐(ou)盟(meng)(meng)允許成員國(guo)在能(neng)(neng)(neng)源轉(zhuan)型前可以適度的(de)增(zeng)加(jia)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源供給，以更好(hao)保(bao)障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源安全(quan)。

　　▲對能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產業(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展而言(yan)，技(ji)(ji)術(shu)雖然不(bu)是(shi)決(jue)(jue)定性(xing)因素(su)，但卻是(shi)最(zui)為重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)因素(su)。人口和(he)經濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)增長需(xu)要(yao)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)來開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)、生產更多的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和(he)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)遭(zao)遇環境壓力也(ye)需(xu)要(yao)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)創新(xin)來實(shi)現(xian)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用(yong)方式的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)型，而政治訴求和(he)政策設(she)計又極(ji)力促進技(ji)(ji)術(shu)擴散(san)和(he)大規模商業(ye)(ye)化。在全球(qiu)實(shi)現(xian)碳中(zhong)和(he)目標的(de)(de)(de)(de)結構性(xing)壓力下，國(guo)家(jia)和(he)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)都承擔著推動能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)清潔化轉(zhuan)型、提升能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安全和(he)韌性(xing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)任務(wu)，利(li)用(yong)好既有優勢因素(su)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)揮技(ji)(ji)術(shu)創新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)催化和(he)倍增效應(ying)，將影響國(guo)家(jia)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展前景，也(ye)決(jue)(jue)定了國(guo)家(jia)和(he)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)在未來能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地位與(yu)權(quan)力。