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　　2012年(nian)是我(wo)國(guo)實現(xian)“十(shi)二五”節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)目標的(de)(de)關鍵一(yi)年(nian)，近日，賽迪智庫在京舉辦賽迪學術沙龍(long)系(xi)列之三——工(gong)業節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)論壇，其(qi)工(gong)業節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)走勢(shi)預測(ce)課題(ti)組發布了(le)《2012年(nian)下半(ban)年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)工(gong)業節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)走勢(shi)分析(xi)與預測(ce)》報告，對上半(ban)年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)工(gong)業節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)基本特點及存在的(de)(de)主要問題(ti)進行分析(xi)，預測(ce)下半(ban)年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)工(gong)業節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)的(de)(de)走勢(shi)并提出政(zheng)策措施建議，為國(guo)家(jia)節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)(pai)工(gong)作提供決策參(can)考。

　　上半年工業(ye)節能減(jian)排(pai)主要情況

　　上(shang)半年工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)趨緩，單(dan)位工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)加(jia)值能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)耗下降較快(kuai)，工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)呈現出五大基本特點(dian)：工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)形(xing)勢(shi)好于預期;四大高載能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費量(liang)占工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費總量(liang)的比(bi)重下降;部分重點(dian)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)淘汰落(luo)后產能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)空間(jian)縮小(xiao)，技術節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)難度(du)加(jia)大;西(xi)部工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)經濟快(kuai)速(su)發(fa)展，節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)壓(ya)力激增(zeng);重點(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作有序推進(jin)。

　　1-5月(yue)(yue)份，全國規模以上工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)單位增加值能(neng)耗下降7.35%，超(chao)(chao)額完成年(nian)度(du)下降5%的預(yu)期目標。四大高(gao)載能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)總量的比(bi)重為43.8%，較(jiao)去年(nian)同期下降1個百(bai)分點。對比(bi)分析2012年(nian)和2011年(nian)的工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)淘汰落后產(chan)能(neng)目標任務，煉鐵、煉鋼、電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁等部(bu)分高(gao)耗能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的整體技(ji)術(shu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝裝備已經處于較(jiao)高(gao)水平，技(ji)術(shu)節(jie)能(neng)空間收窄。1-5月(yue)(yue)份，西部(bu)12省(sheng)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增加值增速全部(bu)超(chao)(chao)過(guo)全國平均水平(10.7%)，新疆、貴州、青海、寧夏的工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量增速均超(chao)(chao)過(guo)10%，遠高(gao)于全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量增速(3.7%)的平均水平。“十二(er)五”期間，對重點用能(neng)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，國家(jia)提出實(shi)施萬家(jia)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)低(di)碳行(xing)動(dong)(dong)，與以行(xing)政手段(duan)推進(jin)重點工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用能(neng)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減排工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作相比(bi)，中小工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減排工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作內生動(dong)(dong)力不足。

　　盡管(guan)上半年節(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)取得較好成效，仍存(cun)在以下問(wen)題，一是(shi)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構重(zhong)化(hua)趨勢尚未得到根本扭轉。1-5月份(fen)，盡管(guan)輕工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)同比增(zeng)速(su)比重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)快(kuai)1.2個(ge)百(bai)分點，但(dan)是(shi)短期內還很(hen)難扭轉工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構偏重(zhong)的趨勢。二是(shi)對中小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)工(gong)(gong)作重(zhong)視(shi)不(bu)夠。一些落后的工(gong)(gong)藝技術(shu)裝(zhuang)備(bei)在中小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)中廣泛使用，中小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)很(hen)難獲(huo)得國家節(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)技術(shu)改造(zao)資(zi)金(jin)支持。三是(shi)中西(xi)部地(di)區(qu)經(jing)濟(ji)發展與節(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)存(cun)在矛盾(dun)。中西(xi)部地(di)區(qu)至少有(you)10個(ge)省市提(ti)出“十二五”經(jing)濟(ji)總(zong)量翻番的目(mu)標，而經(jing)濟(ji)高速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)需要工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)重(zhong)大項目(mu)來支撐，中西(xi)部地(di)區(qu)面臨既要加快(kuai)經(jing)濟(ji)發展又(you)要節(jie)(jie)(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排(pai)(pai)的兩難困境。

　　下半年工業節能減排走勢分析與預測

　　隨(sui)著國(guo)家“穩增長、擴內(nei)需”的相(xiang)關具體措施出臺和部(bu)分(fen)地區一大批高(gao)耗能(neng)項(xiang)目相(xiang)繼投產，今(jin)年下半(ban)年工業能(neng)源消耗將快速增長，工業節(jie)能(neng)指標(biao)可能(neng)出現反彈。

　　上半年，國家出臺一(yi)系列措施以扭(niu)轉經濟下(xia)行趨(qu)勢(shi)。鐵路、機場等一(yi)批(pi)基礎設(she)施建(jian)設(she)項目(mu)重新相繼開工，拉(la)動(dong)高(gao)耗能(neng)行業快(kuai)(kuai)速發(fa)展，推(tui)動(dong)工業能(neng)耗快(kuai)(kuai)速增(zeng)長。近期(qi)，部分地區高(gao)耗能(neng)項目(mu)審批(pi)速度加快(kuai)(kuai)，一(yi)批(pi)工業重大(da)項目(mu)即將啟(qi)動(dong)。下(xia)半年，高(gao)耗能(neng)行業能(neng)源消耗隨(sui)著投(tou)資的增(zeng)長和(he)項目(mu)的投(tou)產可能(neng)出現快(kuai)(kuai)速增(zeng)長趨(qu)勢(shi)。

　　盡管(guan)節(jie)能(neng)產品惠民工(gong)程(cheng)的實施(shi)和節(jie)能(neng)環保(bao)產業(ye)的發展(zhan)為節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)提供一定支撐，但總(zong)體來(lai)看，下半年(nian)全國工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)形勢(shi)不容樂(le)觀。如(ru)何應對(dui)高耗能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)快速(su)擴張?如(ru)何破解經(jing)濟發展(zhan)與(yu)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)的矛盾?如(ru)何抓好中小(xiao)企業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)?賽迪智庫(ku)工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)與(yu)環保(bao)研究所(suo)提出了五(wu)點政(zheng)策(ce)措施(shi)建議：

　　一是(shi)繼續做好(hao)新(xin)上項(xiang)目能評(ping)環(huan)評(ping)。加強(qiang)(qiang)工業投資項(xiang)目節能評(ping)估和審查，把(ba)好(hao)能耗準入(ru)關和污染(ran)物排放總(zong)量關，加強(qiang)(qiang)能評(ping)和環(huan)評(ping)審查的監督管理。

　　二是切實完成淘(tao)(tao)汰落后(hou)(hou)產(chan)能(neng)任務。進一(yi)步把落后(hou)(hou)產(chan)能(neng)淘(tao)(tao)汰落實到具體(ti)企業(ye)、具體(ti)項目，切實加強落后(hou)(hou)產(chan)能(neng)淘(tao)(tao)汰工作的(de)督促考核(he)，推(tui)動(dong)利用(yong)市(shi)場手(shou)段淘(tao)(tao)汰落后(hou)(hou)產(chan)能(neng)。

　　三是加大對(dui)中小(xiao)企業(ye)(ye)節能減(jian)排的支持力度(du)。鼓(gu)勵專業(ye)(ye)化(hua)節能服務公(gong)司為中小(xiao)企業(ye)(ye)開(kai)展節能減(jian)排咨詢(xun);針(zhen)對(dui)中小(xiao)企業(ye)(ye)推行清(qing)潔生(sheng)產(chan)存(cun)在的共性問題，研究出臺相關政(zheng)策措施(shi)。

　　四是研究制(zhi)定差(cha)異化(hua)的工業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)措施。包括：區域工業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)差(cha)異化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)、工業(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)差(cha)異化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)、工業(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)差(cha)異化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)等(deng)。

　　五是繼續擴(kuo)大節能(neng)產品惠民工程支持范(fan)圍(wei)。擴(kuo)大節能(neng)家電產品覆蓋范(fan)圍(wei);將量大面廣的工業耗能(neng)產品列入補貼范(fan)圍(wei)。