對于碳中和，還有什么可以期待？
2022-02-17
500
關鍵要素004
對于碳中和，還有什么(me)可以期待？
受益于(yu)(yu)技術進(jin)步和(he)政策推動，近兩(liang)年來“雙碳(tan)”主(zhu)題已然成(cheng)為A股市(shi)場上表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)最亮眼的投資主(zhu)線，我們(men)早在(zai)《“碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)”的投資機(ji)會——ESG系列2-20210219》和(he)《“碳(tan)”索(suo)未來——ESG及碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)策略-20210407》兩(liang)篇(pian)報告中(zhong)就詳細梳理(li)過(guo)碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)帶來的投資機(ji)會，包括(kuo)新能源車、光伏、風電等，均取得(de)較(jiao)好的市(shi)場表(biao)(biao)現(xian)(xian)。那么，在(zai)這些(xie)發展相(xiang)對成(cheng)熟、市(shi)場關注度較(jiao)高的領域之(zhi)外，關于(yu)(yu)碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)，還有哪些(xie)投資機(ji)遇值得(de)期待(dai)，本文將梳理(li)出未來值得(de)重視的大致方向。
雙碳政策提出以來減碳政策持續落地
2020年(nian)(nian)9月(yue)(yue)雙碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)以(yi)來，相關(guan)(guan)配套政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)陸續(xu)(xu)出(chu)(chu)(chu)臺(tai)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家主席習近平在2020年(nian)(nian)9月(yue)(yue)22日(ri)召開的(de)(de)聯合(he)國(guo)(guo)(guo)大(da)會上表示：“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)將(jiang)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家自主貢獻力度，采(cai)取更(geng)加(jia)有(you)(you)力的(de)(de)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)和(he)(he)(he)措施(shi)，二氧化碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排放力爭于(yu)2030年(nian)(nian)前達(da)到峰值(zhi)，努力爭取2060年(nian)(nian)前實(shi)現碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)。”2020年(nian)(nian)12月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央經(jing)濟工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)會議(yi)明確(que)(que)了(le)2021年(nian)(nian)要(yao)抓好(hao)的(de)(de)八(ba)項重(zhong)點任務，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)包括做(zuo)好(hao)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰、碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)。在這樣背景下，我們認(ren)為雙碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)將(jiang)在未(wei)來幾(ji)年(nian)(nian)持續(xu)(xu)推進(jin)，進(jin)入(ru)2021年(nian)(nian)相關(guan)(guan)配套政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)持續(xu)(xu)推出(chu)(chu)(chu)也印證了(le)這一點。2021年(nian)(nian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)務院(yuan)《關(guan)(guan)于(yu)加(jia)快建立(li)健(jian)全(quan)(quan)綠色低(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)循環發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)經(jing)濟體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)指導(dao)意(yi)見》提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)“建立(li)健(jian)全(quan)(quan)綠色低(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)循環發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)經(jing)濟體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)，確(que)(que)保實(shi)現碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰、碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)目標，推動我國(guo)(guo)(guo)綠色發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)邁(mai)上新臺(tai)階。”2021年(nian)(nian)730政(zheng)(zheng)治局(ju)會議(yi)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)“要(yao)統籌有(you)(you)序做(zuo)好(hao)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰、碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，盡快出(chu)(chu)(chu)臺(tai)2030年(nian)(nian)前碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰行動方(fang)(fang)案，堅持全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)一盤棋，糾(jiu)正‘運動式(shi)’減碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)，先立(li)后破，堅決遏制(zhi)“兩高(gao)(gao)(gao)”項目盲目發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)”。2021年(nian)(nian)10月(yue)(yue)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰、碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)“1+N”政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)頂層設計出(chu)(chu)(chu)爐，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央國(guo)(guo)(guo)務院(yuan)關(guan)(guan)于(yu)完整(zheng)(zheng)準確(que)(que)全(quan)(quan)面貫徹新發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)理念做(zuo)好(hao)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)的(de)(de)意(yi)見》是(shi)“1”，在碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)揮統領作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)用(yong)，《2030年(nian)(nian)前碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰行動方(fang)(fang)案》是(shi)“N”，提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)了(le)明確(que)(que)的(de)(de)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)定(ding)量目標，并(bing)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)了(le)“碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰十(shi)大(da)行動”，主要(yao)涉及能源(yuan)低(di)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)化、節能和(he)(he)(he)產業結(jie)構調整(zheng)(zheng)，這些將(jiang)成(cheng)為未(wei)來我國(guo)(guo)(guo)推進(jin)雙碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)(de)著力點。2021年(nian)(nian)12月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央經(jing)濟工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)會議(yi)也將(jiang)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為重(zhong)點議(yi)題，明確(que)(que)“要(yao)正確(que)(que)認(ren)識和(he)(he)(he)把握碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)達(da)峰碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)(he)”，以(yi)推動經(jing)濟高(gao)(gao)(gao)質量發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。
新(xin)能源(yuan)大力(li)推進，傳統(tong)能源(yuan)節能減排(pai)效(xiao)果顯著(zhu)。從總量(liang)上看(kan)(kan)，2020年我國(guo)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)量(liang)居世界首(shou)位(wei)，占(zhan)全(quan)球總排(pai)放(fang)量(liang)的(de)31%，美國(guo)和(he)歐盟緊(jin)隨其后。從結構上看(kan)(kan)，2020年我國(guo)電力(li)和(he)熱(re)力(li)及工業成為(wei)(wei)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)最多(duo)的(de)行(xing)業，2019年我國(guo)電力(li)和(he)熱(re)力(li)部門碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)占(zhan)比達到50%，制(zhi)造(zao)業和(he)建(jian)筑業達到24%，遠高于2018年歐盟的(de)33%、13%，美國(guo)的(de)35%、10%。我國(guo)電力(li)和(he)熱(re)力(li)部門碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)占(zhan)比較高主要(yao)系發電仍以煤(mei)電為(wei)(wei)主，所(suo)以我國(guo)雙碳(tan)政策主要(yao)落腳點就圍繞(rao)綠色(se)電力(li)改革、低碳(tan)設(she)備推廣、碳(tan)交易定價等方面展(zhan)開，具體而言：
（1）光(guang)伏(fu)和風電(dian)已具備(bei)(bei)平價(jia)上(shang)網(wang)(wang)條件，新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)量持續增(zeng)(zeng)長。根據國(guo)家能源局數據，2020年(nian)、2021年(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)光(guang)伏(fu)裝機(ji)量達(da)到4820KWH、5488KWH，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長60%、14%，2020年(nian)、2021年(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)風電(dian)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)容量7167 KWH、4757KWH，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長178%、-33.6%。隨著產業技術(shu)進步、效率提升，近年(nian)來新建(jian)光(guang)伏(fu)發電(dian)、風電(dian)項目(mu)成本不斷下降，當(dang)前已經(jing)具備(bei)(bei)平價(jia)上(shang)網(wang)(wang)條件，這將有利于風電(dian)和光(guang)伏(fu)等清潔能源推廣(guang)。2021年(nian)6月國(guo)家發改委(wei)發布《關于2021年(nian)新能源上(shang)網(wang)(wang)電(dian)價(jia)政策有關事(shi)項的通知》要求，對新備(bei)(bei)案集中(zhong)式光(guang)伏(fu)電(dian)站、工商(shang)業分布式光(guang)伏(fu)項目(mu)和新核準陸上(shang)風電(dian)項目(mu)，中(zhong)央財政不再補貼(tie)，實行(xing)平價(jia)上(shang)網(wang)(wang)。
（2）新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)量持(chi)續超預期，滲透率不(bu)斷提升。根據(ju)中汽協數(shu)據(ju)，2021年(nian)(nian)我國新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)售(shou)總計達(da)到352萬輛(liang)，較(jiao)2020年(nian)(nian)增長(chang)157%，2021年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)滲透率達(da)到14.8%，較(jiao)2020年(nian)(nian)的5.8%明(ming)顯(xian)提升。回(hui)顧(gu)2021年(nian)(nian)初時，中汽協預計2021年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)量為200萬輛(liang)，同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)超40%，但(dan)是此后不(bu)久這個(ge)預測數(shu)字被進一步上修，新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)量持(chi)續超預期。目前中國新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)市場(chang)已經(jing)實現從政(zheng)策驅動(dong)(dong)轉(zhuan)向產品(pin)驅動(dong)(dong)，新(xin)(xin)老(lao)車(che)(che)(che)(che)企同(tong)臺競(jing)技，國內電動(dong)(dong)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)可選車(che)(che)(che)(che)型豐富(fu)，諸多產品(pin)性價比(bi)高，相對而言(yan)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)補貼、雙積分等政(zheng)策作用弱化。
（3）國內碳(tan)(tan)(tan)交(jiao)易(yi)市(shi)場(chang)建立(li)，碳(tan)(tan)(tan)交(jiao)易(yi)規(gui)模有待(dai)擴大。2021年(nian)7月(yue)(yue)16日全(quan)國碳(tan)(tan)(tan)市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)線交(jiao)易(yi)啟動儀式(shi)在北京(jing)、上(shang)海(hai)和(he)武漢(han)三地(di)同(tong)時(shi)舉行，9時(shi)30分(fen)開始第一批交(jiao)易(yi)。根(gen)據相關規(gui)則和(he)公(gong)告，全(quan)國碳(tan)(tan)(tan)市(shi)場(chang)采用“雙城(cheng)模式(shi)”，交(jiao)易(yi)中(zhong)心設(she)(she)置(zhi)(zhi)在上(shang)海(hai)，將碳(tan)(tan)(tan)配額登記中(zhong)心設(she)(she)置(zhi)(zhi)在武漢(han)。交(jiao)易(yi)方式(shi)包括協(xie)議(yi)(yi)轉讓(rang)（掛牌協(xie)議(yi)(yi)轉讓(rang)和(he)大宗(zong)協(xie)議(yi)(yi)轉讓(rang)）和(he)單(dan)向競價(jia)，其中(zhong)掛牌協(xie)議(yi)(yi)轉讓(rang)交(jiao)易(yi)單(dan)筆買賣(mai)最大申報(bao)數量小(xiao)于10萬噸二氧(yang)化碳(tan)(tan)(tan)當(dang)量，漲跌幅限制10%。全(quan)國碳(tan)(tan)(tan)市(shi)場(chang)啟動初期(qi)的交(jiao)易(yi)主(zhu)體為2225家發電企業。2022年(nian)1月(yue)(yue)國內碳(tan)(tan)(tan)市(shi)場(chang)成(cheng)交(jiao)額為786.2萬噸，而歐盟碳(tan)(tan)(tan)期(qi)貨成(cheng)交(jiao)量為46865.9萬噸，可(ke)見我國碳(tan)(tan)(tan)市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)規(gui)模還(huan)有待(dai)擴大。
展望未來，我們認為國內雙碳相關(guan)政(zheng)策還將陸續(xu)推進，那(nei)么這些政(zheng)策發力的方向具體有哪些呢？在此，我們將從傳(chuan)統制造業節能減(jian)碳、零(ling)碳和負碳技術應用這兩方面(mian)進行展望分析(xi)。
傳統制造業通過技術改造進一步減碳
傳(chuan)統(tong)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可以通(tong)(tong)(tong)過采用(yong)(yong)新型環(huan)保材料(liao)實(shi)現產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)源(yuan)(yuan)頭(tou)上(shang)的(de)(de)減碳(tan)(tan)。光(guang)伏(fu)、風(feng)電等清潔能源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)應用(yong)(yong)從能源(yuan)(yuan)環(huan)節(jie)實(shi)現低(di)碳(tan)(tan)，但除此之(zhi)(zhi)外，制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)也(ye)(ye)是(shi)(shi)我國(guo)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)源(yuan)(yuan)頭(tou)之(zhi)(zhi)一。2019年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)量達35億噸二氧化(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)，占全國(guo)的(de)(de)比例為(wei)(wei)(wei)35%，尤其是(shi)(shi)傳(chuan)統(tong)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)能耗通(tong)(tong)(tong)常較(jiao)高。因此為(wei)(wei)(wei)了實(shi)現碳(tan)(tan)中和目標(biao)，制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)需要(yao)進行綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)，即通(tong)(tong)(tong)過技(ji)術升級推動產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)及(ji)(ji)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)。而產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)途徑之(zhi)(zhi)一就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)從源(yuan)(yuan)頭(tou)上(shang)采用(yong)(yong)環(huan)保材料(liao)，2021年(nian)(nian)7月(yue)國(guo)家發(fa)改委印發(fa)《“十(shi)四五”循(xun)環(huan)經濟發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)規(gui)劃(hua)》，重(zhong)點(dian)任(ren)務之(zhi)(zhi)一就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)推行重(zhong)點(dian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)綠色(se)設計(ji)。規(gui)劃(hua)提出引導企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)過程中使用(yong)(yong)無(wu)(wu)毒無(wu)(wu)害(hai)、低(di)毒低(di)害(hai)、低(di)（無(wu)(wu)）揮發(fa)性(xing)有機物(wu)含量等環(huan)境友好型原(yuan)料(liao)；推廣易(yi)(yi)拆(chai)解(jie)、易(yi)(yi)分類、易(yi)(yi)回收的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)設計(ji)方(fang)案(an)，提高再生(sheng)原(yuan)料(liao)的(de)(de)替代使用(yong)(yong)比例；推動包(bao)裝和包(bao)裝印刷(shua)減量化(hua)(hua)。以塑料(liao)制(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)為(wei)(wei)(wei)例，可降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)和可再生(sheng)塑料(liao)有望成為(wei)(wei)(wei)減少白色(se)污染和降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)途徑。根(gen)據前(qian)瞻(zhan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)研究(jiu)院援引刁曉(xiao)倩(qian)《國(guo)內(nei)外生(sheng)物(wu)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)塑料(liao)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)現狀》，2020年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)生(sheng)物(wu)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)塑料(liao)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能已達50萬(wan)噸左右，在建和擬建產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能合計(ji)超380萬(wan)噸。同(tong)時根(gen)據前(qian)瞻(zhan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)研究(jiu)院援引科(ke)院物(wu)理所工程料(liao)國(guo)家工程研究(jiu)中心的(de)(de)預測，2025年(nian)(nian)我國(guo)生(sheng)物(wu)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)塑料(liao)的(de)(de)需求量將突破500萬(wan)噸。因此，預計(ji)可降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)塑料(liao)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)未來(lai)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)空間(jian)廣闊，其產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)各(ge)環(huan)節(jie)也(ye)(ye)有望迎來(lai)機遇，目前(qian)A股在可降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)解(jie)塑料(liao)研發(fa)及(ji)(ji)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)領域的(de)(de)相關(guan)公司(si)包(bao)括金(jin)丹科(ke)技(ji)、恒力石化(hua)(hua)等。
傳(chuan)統(tong)制造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)可以通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)循環(huan)利(li)(li)用(yong)和數字化(hua)(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)來降低生(sheng)產(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程的(de)(de)(de)(de)碳排放。除了材料端，傳(chuan)統(tong)制造(zao)(zao)(zao)企業(ye)(ye)還需(xu)對生(sheng)產(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程進行綠色(se)化(hua)(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)，放棄過(guo)(guo)(guo)去粗放的(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)模式，通(tong)(tong)過(guo)(guo)(guo)節(jie)能(neng)降耗(hao)方式進行精細化(hua)(hua)(hua)管理(li)，提高(gao)能(neng)源(yuan)利(li)(li)用(yong)效率，才能(neng)實(shi)現產(chan)品全生(sheng)命(ming)周期的(de)(de)(de)(de)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排。2021/11/15工(gong)信部印(yin)發《“十四五”工(gong)業(ye)(ye)綠色(se)發展規劃》，就提高(gao)能(neng)源(yuan)利(li)(li)用(yong)效率提出(chu)推動工(gong)業(ye)(ye)窯爐(lu)、鍋(guo)爐(lu)、電(dian)機、泵、風機、壓縮機等(deng)(deng)(deng)重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)用(yong)能(neng)設備(bei)系統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)節(jie)能(neng)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)；加強高(gao)溫(wen)散料與液態(tai)熔渣余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)、含塵廢氣(qi)余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)、低品位余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)能(neng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)回收利(li)(li)用(yong)，對重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)工(gong)藝(yi)流程、用(yong)能(neng)設備(bei)實(shi)施信息(xi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)數字化(hua)(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)升級。因此(ci)，循環(huan)利(li)(li)用(yong)和數字化(hua)(hua)(hua)改造(zao)(zao)(zao)將是(shi)傳(chuan)統(tong)制造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)排的(de)(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)方向。以余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)發電(dian)為例(li)，隨著我(wo)(wo)國(guo)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)快速發展，余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)資源(yuan)也在(zai)不斷(duan)積累，根據前瞻產(chan)業(ye)(ye)研究院測算(suan)，2020年(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)可回收余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)總(zong)資源(yuan)平(ping)均值約(yue)13億噸標(biao)準煤(mei)，主要(yao)來自(zi)高(gao)溫(wen)煙氣(qi)；截(jie)至2020年(nian)底(di)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)發電(dian)累積裝(zhuang)機量約(yue)為4500萬(wan)千(qian)瓦，預計2026年(nian)接(jie)近2億千(qian)瓦，年(nian)化(hua)(hua)(hua)增速達33%。目(mu)前A股(gu)在(zai)余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)發電(dian)領域的(de)(de)(de)(de)相關公(gong)司(si)包括杭鍋(guo)股(gu)份和華光環(huan)能(neng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，從事余(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)熱(re)發電(dian)設備(bei)開(kai)發、設計、制造(zao)(zao)(zao)等(deng)(deng)(deng)業(ye)(ye)務。
此外，傳(chuan)統制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)改造(zao)也有(you)助(zhu)于提(ti)升(sheng)用能(neng)效(xiao)率(lv)、降低(di)總(zong)能(neng)耗。根(gen)據(ju)(ju)中國信通(tong)院數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)，2020年數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)在我國工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中的(de)滲透率(lv)僅為(wei)21%，未來隨著(zhu)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型提(ti)速，制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型空間廣闊。2021/12/12國務(wu)(wu)院印(yin)發的(de)《“十四五(wu)”數(shu)(shu)字(zi)經(jing)濟(ji)發展規劃》也提(ti)出縱深推(tui)進工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型，加快推(tui)動研發設(she)計(ji)、生(sheng)產(chan)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)、經(jing)營管理、市(shi)場服務(wu)(wu)等全生(sheng)命周(zhou)期數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型；加快推(tui)動智慧能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)建設(she)應用，促(cu)進能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)產(chan)、運輸、消(xiao)費等各(ge)環節(jie)智能(neng)化(hua)升(sheng)級。根(gen)據(ju)(ju)中國信通(tong)院援引世界經(jing)濟(ji)論壇數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)，到2030年各(ge)行(xing)各(ge)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)受益(yi)于數(shu)(shu)字(zi)技術所減少的(de)碳排放量預(yu)計(ji)將達(da)121億噸，其中制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)通(tong)過數(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)改造(zao)能(neng)夠減少碳排放量27億噸，減碳效(xiao)果(guo)顯(xian)著(zhu)。通(tong)過在能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中應用5G、云(yun)計(ji)算(suan)、物聯網、人工(gong)(gong)智能(neng)等數(shu)(shu)字(zi)解(jie)決方案(an)，可以減少高達(da)15%的(de)全球(qiu)碳排放。目前A股瑞(rui)納智能(neng)是一(yi)家智慧供(gong)熱整體解(jie)決方案(an)提(ti)供(gong)商，致力(li)于為(wei)熱力(li)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)客(ke)戶(hu)提(ti)供(gong)產(chan)品、解(jie)決方案(an)和節(jie)能(neng)服務(wu)(wu)。
零碳和負碳技術有望突破并加快應用
“零碳(tan)”技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)中(zhong)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是未(wei)來(lai)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)發(fa)展重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)，有望帶動(dong)萬(wan)億(yi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)值。“零碳(tan)”技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)是實(shi)現能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)供給結構轉型的(de)(de)關鍵技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)，目(mu)前(qian)光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)已經較為(wei)(wei)(wei)成熟，風力發(fa)電(dian)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)也在加(jia)快(kuai)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)，未(wei)來(lai)需(xu)要進一(yi)步(bu)發(fa)力氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是最(zui)環保、最(zui)容易(yi)獲得(de)的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，可(ke)以(yi)做(zuo)到(dao)“零”排放(fang)，被譽為(wei)(wei)(wei)“終極清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)”。但是，目(mu)前(qian)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)取和儲運(yun)(yun)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)薄弱，制(zhi)(zhi)取和利用(yong)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)經濟性還不高(gao)(gao)。盡管我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政府在消費用(yong)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)上給予大(da)(da)量補貼，實(shi)際中(zhong)用(yong)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)價格僅為(wei)(wei)(wei)40元(yuan)/千克左右，但補貼難以(yi)長期維(wei)持(chi)，我(wo)們認(ren)為(wei)(wei)(wei)未(wei)來(lai)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)將成為(wei)(wei)(wei)碳(tan)中(zhong)和的(de)(de)研發(fa)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)。2021/10/24國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)務院在《2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)碳(tan)達(da)峰行動(dong)方案》中(zhong)指出要集中(zhong)力量開展低(di)成本可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)創新；加(jia)快(kuai)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)研發(fa)和示范應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)，探索在工業(ye)、交通(tong)運(yun)(yun)輸、建筑(zhu)等領(ling)域規模(mo)化應(ying)(ying)(ying)用(yong)。根據中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)聯盟預計(ji)(ji)，到(dao)2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)碳(tan)達(da)峰情景(jing)下，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)在中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)終端能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體(ti)系的(de)(de)占比將從2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)2.7%提高(gao)(gao)到(dao)6%，而到(dao)2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)碳(tan)中(zhong)和情景(jing)下，這一(yi)比重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)將提高(gao)(gao)到(dao)20%。這對應(ying)(ying)(ying)著我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)需(xu)求量將從2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)3342萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)長至2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)3715萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)和1.3億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)速約為(wei)(wei)(wei)3.5%，并且(qie)海通(tong)宏觀(guan)組預計(ji)(ji)實(shi)際增(zeng)速可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)高(gao)(gao)于此，或(huo)將在6%左右。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)科技(ji)含量高(gao)(gao)、資本投(tou)入大(da)(da)、產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)長、帶動(dong)的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)范圍廣，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)聯盟預計(ji)(ji)2036-2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)值將達(da)到(dao)12萬(wan)億(yi)元(yuan)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)涉及多個環節，A股已經有不少公司開始布局，例如(ru)新奧股份(fen)、衛(wei)星化學、九(jiu)豐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)等。
“負碳(tan)(tan)”技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)、利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)和(he)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)潛(qian)力較(jiao)(jiao)大，助力碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰過渡(du)至碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)。未(wei)來我國(guo)(guo)(guo)將從(cong)“碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰”過渡(du)至“碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)”，屆時(shi)“減碳(tan)(tan)”技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)貢(gong)獻將逐漸變小，而“負碳(tan)(tan)”技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)重要性上(shang)升。負排放技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)主要包含碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)、利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)和(he)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)（CCUS）及生(sheng)(sheng)態碳(tan)(tan)匯(hui)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)CCUS技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)是將二氧(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)從(cong)工業(ye)或(huo)(huo)者能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)相(xiang)(xiang)關源(yuan)(yuan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)離并捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)，加以地(di)質(zhi)、化(hua)(hua)(hua)工或(huo)(huo)生(sheng)(sheng)物利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)，或(huo)(huo)輸送到適宜(yi)的(de)(de)(de)場地(di)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)，使CO2與(yu)大氣長期(qi)隔離的(de)(de)(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)體系。我國(guo)(guo)(guo)CCUS發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)較(jiao)(jiao)晚，成(cheng)本依然較(jiao)(jiao)高，但政策(ce)(ce)支(zhi)持下(xia)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)迅速，應用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)規模不斷擴大。根據生(sheng)(sheng)態環(huan)境部(bu)規劃院等發布(bu)的(de)(de)(de)《中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)二氧(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)與(yu)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)(CCUS)年(nian)度(du)報告(2021)》，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)已(yi)(yi)投運(yun)或(huo)(huo)建(jian)設中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)CCUS示范項目(mu)約(yue)有40多個(ge)，遍布(bu)19個(ge)省份，捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)能(neng)力300萬(wan)噸/年(nian)；碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)目(mu)標下(xia)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)CCUS減排需求(qiu)為(wei)：2030年(nian)0.2~4.08億噸，2050年(nian)6~14.5億噸，2060年(nian)10~18.2億噸。因此，CCUS技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)將是未(wei)來我國(guo)(guo)(guo)政策(ce)(ce)支(zhi)持重點，《2030年(nian)前碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰行動(dong)方案》就已(yi)(yi)經指出要開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)低成(cheng)本二氧(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)與(yu)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)創新，推(tui)廣(guang)先進成(cheng)熟(shu)綠色低碳(tan)(tan)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，開(kai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)示范應用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)。目(mu)前中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)CCUS示范項目(mu)整體規模較(jiao)(jiao)小，成(cheng)本依然較(jiao)(jiao)高，但未(wei)來有望逐步降低，從(cong)而達(da)到商(shang)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)水平(ping)。從(cong)捕(bu)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)環(huan)節來看(kan)，目(mu)前部(bu)分(fen)技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)已(yi)(yi)達(da)到或(huo)(huo)接(jie)近達(da)到商(shang)業(ye)化(hua)(hua)(hua)應用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)階段；從(cong)運(yun)輸環(huan)節來看(kan)，二氧(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)陸路車載運(yun)輸和(he)內陸船舶運(yun)輸技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)已(yi)(yi)成(cheng)熟(shu)；從(cong)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)環(huan)節來看(kan)，化(hua)(hua)(hua)工利用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)取得(de)較(jiao)(jiao)大進展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，整體處(chu)于(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)試(shi)階段；從(cong)封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)環(huan)節來看(kan)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)已(yi)(yi)完成(cheng)了全國(guo)(guo)(guo)二氧(yang)化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)理論封(feng)(feng)存(cun)(cun)潛(qian)力評估(gu)。目(mu)前A股(gu)部(bu)分(fen)上(shang)市公司已(yi)(yi)經在(zai)CCUS領域(yu)提前布(bu)局或(huo)(huo)具備相(xiang)(xiang)關技(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)積累，例如(ru)廣(guang)匯(hui)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)石油(you)等。
綜上所述，自2020年9月“雙碳”目標提出以(yi)來，以(yi)新能源車、光伏風電為代表的投資(zi)主(zhu)線表現較(jiao)強(qiang)。
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