目(mu)前(qian)，我(wo)(wo)(wo)國已建成了全(quan)(quan)球(qiu)規(gui)模(mo)最大的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統，2020年全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)7.5萬億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)，裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)達(da)到22億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦。未來我(wo)(wo)(wo)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統供需規(gui)模(mo)將持續擴大，電(dian)(dian)(dian)網保障供需平衡的(de)作(zuo)用(yong)將更加突出。具(ju)體體現(xian)在：① 用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求持續增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。隨著經濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、產(chan)業(ye)升(sheng)級(ji)和人民生活(huo)水平提高(gao)(gao)，人均用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)水平也(ye)會(hui)(hui)隨之升(sheng)高(gao)(gao)。同時(shi)，碳(tan)達(da)峰、碳(tan)中(zhong)和（以下(xia)簡稱(cheng)“雙碳(tan)”）戰略(lve)下(xia)，為支撐煤炭、石油、天然氣消費達(da)峰，我(wo)(wo)(wo)國需要在工業(ye)、建筑、交通等(deng)領域實施電(dian)(dian)(dian)能替(ti)代，實現(xian)更高(gao)(gao)水平的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化。上述因素共同作(zuo)用(yong)下(xia)，未來我(wo)(wo)(wo)國用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)將持續增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)（圖(tu)1）。預計2060年，我(wo)(wo)(wo)國全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)將達(da)到15萬億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)以上，比2020年增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1倍(bei)(bei)。②發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模(mo)持續擴大。預計2060年我(wo)(wo)(wo)國發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)將達(da)到60億(yi)—80億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦，達(da)到2020年裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)的(de)3倍(bei)(bei)左右。

碳(tan)中和目標下我國電網體系總體分析

近年(nian)來，我(wo)國(guo)大力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)展非化石能(neng)源，特別是(shi)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)等新能(neng)源。2020年(nian)，我(wo)國(guo)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規(gui)模合計(ji)5.35億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)的(de)24.3%；風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)合計(ji)7 275億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時，占總(zong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)9.5%。遠期在碳(tan)中和(he)情景目標下，風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)步成為主體電(dian)(dian)(dian)源，電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)消(xiao)納新能(neng)源的(de)任務將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)更加艱(jian)巨。預計(ji)2060年(nian)，風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機合計(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到40億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)以(yi)上，常規(gui)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機3億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，非碳(tan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)占總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)的(de)90%左右，發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到總(zong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)85%以(yi)上。

我(wo)國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)分布不均，北(bei)方和西(xi)(xi)北(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)煤炭、風能(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)等(deng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)豐(feng)富，西(xi)(xi)南(nan)地(di)(di)區(qu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)比較(jiao)豐(feng)富，形成了“西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)(song)、北(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)南(nan)送(song)(song)”的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)配置基本格局，2020年西(xi)(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)達到(dao)2.7億千瓦。據測(ce)算，我(wo)國(guo)81%的(de)水(shui)能(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)、86%的(de)風能(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)、96%的(de)太陽(yang)能(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)分布在西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)和東(dong)(dong)北(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)，未來(lai)全國(guo)約2/3的(de)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量分布在東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)和中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)。考慮(lv)分布式新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)，中(zhong)(zhong)短期內(nei)中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)和東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)仍然難(nan)以實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)自給自足，電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)與負荷逆向分布的(de)特征(zheng)不會發(fa)生根本性變化，中(zhong)(zhong)短期內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網遠距離輸送(song)(song)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)功能(neng)將進一(yi)步強(qiang)化。但是長(chang)期來(lai)看，東(dong)(dong)、西(xi)(xi)部(bu)發(fa)展(zhan)差異(yi)將逐漸均衡，尤其新疆等(deng)西(xi)(xi)北(bei)地(di)(di)區(qu)作為“一(yi)帶一(yi)路”連接歐亞大陸(lu)的(de)陸(lu)上通道，預期將會出現若干(gan)都(dou)市群(qun)，使得西(xi)(xi)部(bu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)輸送(song)(song)需求有所減弱。

構建的總體思路和建設原則

總(zong)體(ti)思路。深(shen)入貫徹創新(xin)、協調(diao)、綠色、開放、共享的(de)(de)新(xin)發展(zhan)理念，以“雙碳”為總(zong)體(ti)目標，積極構(gou)建新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統。充(chong)分發揮(hui)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)優化能源(yuan)資源(yuan)配(pei)置(zhi)的(de)(de)樞紐平臺(tai)作(zuo)用，統籌推進協調(diao)發展(zhan)，提高電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)接納新(xin)能源(yuan)和(he)多元(yuan)化負荷的(de)(de)承載力(li)(li)和(he)靈活(huo)性(xing)，穩步推進跨省區(qu)遠距離(li)清(qing)潔電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)輸送，構(gou)建規模合理、結構(gou)清(qing)晰(xi)、安全可靠的(de)(de)交流同步電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)，提升電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)數字化智能化調(diao)度運行(xing)水平，積極發展(zhan)源(yuan)網(wang)(wang)荷儲(chu)一體(ti)化、微電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)、直(zhi)流配(pei)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)等新(xin)模式新(xin)業態，為保障(zhang)經濟社會發展(zhan)和(he)推動(dong)能源(yuan)綠色低碳轉型提供有力(li)(li)支撐(cheng)。

發展(zhan)原則(ze)。①堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)系(xi)(xi)統觀(guan)念，整(zheng)體優化(hua)。堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)系(xi)(xi)統思(si)維(wei)，堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)全國一盤(pan)棋，通(tong)過大(da)范圍優化(hua)配置(zhi)資源(yuan)(yuan)，推動(dong)源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)儲(chu)協(xie)調發展(zhan)，提(ti)(ti)高電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統整(zheng)體效率(lv)和(he)(he)經濟(ji)性(xing)(xing)。②堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)安(an)全可靠(kao)，結構(gou)合理(li)。堅(jian)(jian)守安(an)全底(di)線，構(gou)建規(gui)模合理(li)、分層分區、安(an)全可靠(kao)的(de)電(dian)網(wang)，提(ti)(ti)高電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)抗災和(he)(he)應急保(bao)(bao)障能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)，重點提(ti)(ti)高應對高比例新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)不穩定性(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)網(wang)絡攻擊(ji)等新(xin)(xin)型風險的(de)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)。③堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)清潔(jie)低碳(tan)(tan)，綠色優先。堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)生態環境保(bao)(bao)護(hu)優先，激(ji)發負荷(he)側和(he)(he)新(xin)(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)等潛(qian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)，形(xing)成源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)儲(chu)協(xie)同消納新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)格局，適應碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)(he)情(qing)景(jing)下大(da)規(gui)模、高比例新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)持(chi)續開發利用(yong)需求(qiu)。④堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)驅動(dong)，數(shu)字升(sheng)級(ji)(ji)。大(da)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)推進科(ke)技(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)，促進轉型升(sheng)級(ji)(ji)，提(ti)(ti)高電(dian)網(wang)數(shu)字化(hua)水平，構(gou)建“互聯網(wang)+”智能(neng)(neng)電(dian)網(wang)，加強系(xi)(xi)統集成優化(hua)，改進調度運(yun)行方(fang)式，提(ti)(ti)高電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統效率(lv)。⑤堅(jian)(jian)持(chi)遠近結合，先立后破。杜絕脫離實(shi)際的(de)“運(yun)動(dong)式”減(jian)碳(tan)(tan)，充分認識碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰(feng)、碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)(he)的(de)復(fu)雜性(xing)(xing)、長期性(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)系(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)，循序漸進、穩中(zhong)求(qiu)進，在(zai)現(xian)代(dai)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統基礎上逐(zhu)步升(sheng)級(ji)(ji)換代(dai)。

未來電力(li)系統的基本結構和形(xing)態(tai)

未來遠距離輸電規(gui)模將(jiang)持續擴大

隨著化石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)機組大量(liang)退出(chu)，發(fa)電(dian)資源與負(fu)荷中心呈逆向分(fen)布的問題(ti)將凸顯，東部(bu)地(di)區(qu)面(mian)臨(lin)較大的電(dian)量(liang)缺口(kou)，必須要進行大規模跨區(qu)電(dian)力調配。

面向碳中(zhong)和(he)情景的電(dian)網體系(xi)下(xia)，跨(kua)省跨(kua)區大型輸電(dian)通道進(jin)一步增(zeng)加。預計 2060 年全(quan)國跨(kua)省區輸電(dian)通道規模將達到 7 億(yi)—8 億(yi)千(qian)瓦，比(bi) 2020 年的 2.7 億(yi)千(qian)瓦增(zeng)加 1 倍以上。跨(kua)省區輸電(dian)量約 3 萬億(yi)千(qian)瓦時，基本全(quan)部(bu)為(wei)非化石能源電(dian)力(li)。主要電(dian)力(li)流方向為(wei)東(dong)北(bei)(bei)地區、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)地區、西(xi)南地區向東(dong)中(zhong)部(bu)地區輸電(dian)。

大電網仍將是(shi)電力系(xi)統(tong)基本結構形式

新能源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)出力與(yu)氣象條(tiao)件(jian)密切相關。我(wo)國各地(di)區存在(zai)地(di)理(li)差異，通過大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網互(hu)聯(lian)可(ke)以促(cu)進資(zi)源共享能力提升(sheng)。同(tong)時，未來(lai)隨著(zhu)新能源成(cheng)為主體電(dian)(dian)(dian)源，在(zai)持續多(duo)天(tian)陰雨(yu)等不利天(tian)氣下局(ju)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應安全保障難度(du)較大，需要(yao)通過大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網實現更大范圍內的(de)互(hu)濟，可(ke)以提高系(xi)統可(ke)靠性，保障供電(dian)(dian)(dian)安全。

面向碳中和(he)情(qing)景的電(dian)(dian)網體系(xi)下，大電(dian)(dian)網仍是電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的基本(ben)形態。通(tong)過大電(dian)(dian)網和(he)大市場，可以在(zai)全國(guo)范圍統(tong)籌資源(yuan)配置(zhi)，實現跨(kua)區域互濟，提高(gao)供電(dian)(dian)可靠性；同時，還能獲取時間差季節(jie)互補，風、光、水、火能相調(diao)劑和(he)跨(kua)區域流域補償(chang)調(diao)節(jie)等(deng)效益，實現各(ge)類發電(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)充分(fen)共享(xiang)、互為備用(yong)。

分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)將形(xing)成有效補充，同大電網(wang)結合構成電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)基(ji)本形(xing)態

風能(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)密度低(di)，分(fen)(fen)布(bu)廣泛(fan)，適(shi)合分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式開發利用(yong)。未來(lai)，隨(sui)著風電、光(guang)伏、儲能(neng)、靈(ling)活性負荷等大規模(mo)、分(fen)(fen)散(san)式接入，主體將從單一化向(xiang)多元化轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變，電力輸送將從發配用(yong)單向(xiang)傳(chuan)(chuan)輸向(xiang)源網荷儲多互動靈(ling)活傳(chuan)(chuan)輸轉(zhuan)(zhuan)變。傳(chuan)(chuan)統電力系(xi)統的調度運行方式也(ye)需要相應(ying)做出(chu)改變。

面(mian)向碳中和情景(jing)的(de)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)體系(xi)(xi)下（圖 2），分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)與大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)兼容(rong)并(bing)舉(ju)、相(xiang)互(hu)支撐，互(hu)為補充備(bei)用，以(yi)保障電(dian)(dian)網(wang)安全(quan)穩定運(yun)行(xing)(xing)。分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)貼(tie)近終端用戶，在保障中心城市(shi)重要負(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)供電(dian)(dian)、支撐縣(xian)域經濟高質量發展(zhan)、服務工(gong)業園區(qu)綠色發展(zhan)、解決偏遠地(di)(di)區(qu)用電(dian)(dian)等(deng)領域作用尤為突出。分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)具備(bei)靈活性與主動(dong)性，支持多元化電(dian)(dian)源、負(fu)(fu)荷(he)(he)開放(fang)接入和雙向互(hu)動(dong)，促(cu)進分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)新能(neng)源高效就(jiu)地(di)(di)消納。依托先進量測技術(shu)(shu)、現代(dai)信息通信、大(da)(da)數據、物聯(lian)網(wang)技術(shu)(shu)等(deng)，分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)將擁有全(quan)景(jing)感知能(neng)力；基(ji)于大(da)(da)規模超算能(neng)力和人(ren)工(gong)智能(neng)技術(shu)(shu)，分(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)可以(yi)智慧化調控運(yun)行(xing)(xing)，實現提升系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)效率、優化配置(zhi)資(zi)源的(de)目標。

電力(li)系(xi)統靈活調節(jie)能力(li)大幅提高

碳中和情(qing)景下，極高(gao)(gao)比例(li)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機接入(ru)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)，對電(dian)網(wang)(wang)的運行提出(chu)了(le)巨大(da)挑戰(zhan)。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)波動性(xing)大(da)，且(qie)發(fa)電(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)與用電(dian)負荷曲線匹配度較低，甚(shen)至某些(xie)時(shi)段完全相反。風電(dian)在負荷高(gao)(gao)峰時(shi)刻發(fa)電(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)處于較低水平，光伏對晚高(gao)(gao)峰時(shi)發(fa)電(dian)出(chu)力(li)(li)基本為零(ling)。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)大(da)規模發(fa)展增(zeng)加了(le)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)平衡調節(jie)調峰壓力(li)(li)，傳統(tong)電(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)無法(fa)滿足實時(shi)平衡需(xu)要(yao)，需(xu)要(yao)各方共同努力(li)(li)提高(gao)(gao)調節(jie)能力(li)(li)。

面向碳中和情景的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)體系(xi)，源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)儲融合互(hu)動，靈(ling)活(huo)調(diao)節(jie)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)側(ce)，抽蓄、儲能(neng)(neng)等靈(ling)活(huo)調(diao)節(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)提(ti)(ti)供調(diao)節(jie)服務；新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)過配置儲能(neng)(neng)、提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)功率預測水平(ping)、智慧化調(diao)度運行等手段，成為新(xin)(xin)型“系(xi)統(tong)友好型”新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站，提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力支撐水平(ping)，平(ping)抑新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)間歇性(xing)、波動性(xing)對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)帶來的(de)(de)(de)沖擊。電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)側(ce)，充分考慮省間資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)濟(ji)，共享系(xi)統(tong)調(diao)節(jie)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)，發揮大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)(de)聯網(wang)效(xiao)益，平(ping)抑不同區域的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力波動。負(fu)荷(he)側(ce)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖、電(dian)(dian)(dian)制氫(qing)、數據中心、電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車充電(dian)(dian)(dian)設施等新(xin)(xin)型靈(ling)活(huo)負(fu)荷(he)成為電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)重(zhong)要組成部分。通(tong)過市場機制改變傳(chuan)統(tong)“源(yuan)(yuan)隨荷(he)動”的(de)(de)(de)模(mo)式(shi)，實現源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)儲深度融合，靈(ling)活(huo)互(hu)動。

形(xing)成支撐(cheng)電力市場(chang)化運(yun)行的(de)服務平臺(tai)

電力(li)市(shi)場(chang)可以(yi)最大(da)限度還(huan)原(yuan)電力(li)商品屬性(xing)，實現市(shi)場(chang)配置資源、釋放(fang)價格信號、反映成本(ben)特性(xing)、增(zeng)強需(xu)求(qiu)彈性(xing)、引導(dao)電力(li)投資、調動系統靈(ling)活性(xing)資源、促進源網荷(he)儲(chu)有效互動、引導(dao)多(duo)元(yuan)主體(ti)參與系統運行決策的多(duo)重功能。面向碳(tan)中(zhong)和情景的電網體(ti)系下，我國將擁有以(yi)中(zhong)長期市(shi)場(chang)為主體(ti)、現貨市(shi)場(chang)為補充，涵蓋電能量、輔(fu)助服務(wu)、發(fa)電權(quan)、輸電權(quan)和容量補償等多(duo)交易品種高標準市(shi)場(chang)體(ti)系。

新型(xing)電力系統(tong)分階段實(shi)施策略

控碳(tan)階段（2021—2030年）

此階(jie)段(duan)為青(qing)海、寧夏、新(xin)疆等西部地(di)區(qu)可再生能源(yuan)快速建設(she)和增長時(shi)期，遠(yuan)距離特高壓直流技(ji)術(shu)已經基本成熟(shu)，而儲能技(ji)術(shu)尚(shang)未成熟(shu)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統靈活調節能力(li)(li)仍然(ran)不足，因此可再生能源(yuan)的輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)送和消納依然(ran)重點依賴(lai)于(yu)跨(kua)地(di)區(qu)的遠(yuan)距離輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建設(she)。此階(jie)段(duan)主(zhu)要(yao)以平衡(heng)東(dong)、西部資源(yuan)不平衡(heng)，同時(shi)積極建設(she)分布式微(wei)網在用(yong)戶側整合為目標，并為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統靈活性(xing)調節能力(li)(li)建設(she)奠定基礎。建議：重點建設(she)哈(ha)密—重慶、隴東(dong)—山東(dong)、金上—湖(hu)北(bei)、蒙西—河(he)北(bei)、寧夏—湖(hu)南、四川—湖(hu)南等跨(kua)區(qu)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道，預(yu)計全國跨(kua)省區(qu)遠(yuan)距離輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道規模(mo)(mo)達(da)到(dao)4億(yi)千瓦(wa)，比2020年增長1.3億(yi)千瓦(wa)。預(yu)計實現新(xin)能源(yuan)跨(kua)省區(qu)輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)送新(xin)能源(yuan)規模(mo)(mo)達(da)到(dao)1.5億(yi)千瓦(wa)，輸(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量超(chao)過3 000億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)。

隨著港口、鐵路、公(gong)路、油田等各行(xing)業分布式可再生能源建設逐(zhu)步進入高(gao)峰，原有(you)較為(wei)落后的配電(dian)網(wang)迫(po)切需要提(ti)升感知、控制和(he)智能化水平。此外(wai)，交-直流微網(wang)需要大規模發展，以能夠接受和(he)消納分布式可再生能源。

減碳(tan)階段(duan)（2031—2040年(nian)）

我國將(jiang)逐步實現(xian)社(she)(she)會(hui)主(zhu)義現(xian)代(dai)化，并向社(she)(she)會(hui)主(zhu)義現(xian)代(dai)化強國邁進(jin)，預期用電(dian)(dian)負荷(he)相比目前狀(zhuang)態將(jiang)增(zeng)加1.5倍(bei)，而且負荷(he)仍將(jiang)集中在(zai)中部(bu)和東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地區。而在(zai)此(ci)(ci)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)(duan)，一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，受(shou)東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地區可再生能源建(jian)(jian)設容(rong)量(liang)制約，新增(zeng)大(da)部(bu)分負荷(he)依然需要(yao)(yao)遠(yuan)(yuan)距離(li)跨省區輸(shu)送，預期輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道(dao)建(jian)(jian)設壓(ya)力仍然較大(da)。另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，河西走(zou)廊通(tong)(tong)(tong)道(dao)受(shou)制于(yu)地理條件，輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)建(jian)(jian)設在(zai)此(ci)(ci)階(jie)(jie)段(duan)(duan)將(jiang)趨向飽和，難(nan)以再向中部(bu)和東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地區新建(jian)(jian)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)走(zou)廊。總體預計跨省區遠(yuan)(yuan)距離(li)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道(dao)規(gui)模將(jiang)需要(yao)(yao)達到6億(yi)(yi)—7億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)，需要(yao)(yao)新建(jian)(jian)跨省區遠(yuan)(yuan)距離(li)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)(tong)道(dao)2億(yi)(yi)—3億(yi)(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)。

隨(sui)(sui)著全國各地可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)數(shu)據(ju)和氣象數(shu)據(ju)在2020—2040年中積累逐漸完善(shan)，可預期(qi)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)預測(ce)精度將(jiang)(jiang)大幅(fu)(fu)提升(sheng)。一(yi)方面，隨(sui)(sui)著分布式用戶側市場機制逐漸改變和完善(shan)，源(yuan)網荷(he)儲(chu)將(jiang)(jiang)深度融(rong)合，靈活(huo)互動(dong)，尤其是電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖、電(dian)(dian)制氫、數(shu)據(ju)中心、電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車充電(dian)(dian)設施等新型靈活(huo)負荷(he)在此階段將(jiang)(jiang)成為(wei)(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)調節的(de)重要組成部分。因(yin)此，在同(tong)(tong)樣的(de)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)容量下，新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量將(jiang)(jiang)得到大幅(fu)(fu)提升(sheng)，預計新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)跨省區輸(shu)送電(dian)(dian)量超過1.5萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)。另一(yi)方面，分布式可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)將(jiang)(jiang)逐漸與(yu)城鄉居(ju)民、工業生(sheng)產融(rong)為(wei)(wei)(wei)一(yi)體，網絡呈現交流為(wei)(wei)(wei)主，直(zhi)流為(wei)(wei)(wei)輔的(de)格局，同(tong)(tong)時(shi)配用電(dian)(dian)智能(neng)(neng)化(hua)建設也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)進一(yi)步加強。

低碳(tan)階段（2041—2050年(nian)）

預期(qi)儲能等(deng)技術(shu)將逐(zhu)漸有(you)所(suo)突破，各類型電池(chi)(chi)成本(ben)(ben)也將大(da)幅下降，鋰電池(chi)(chi)、液流電池(chi)(chi)等(deng)儲能系統的平準化(hua)成本(ben)(ben)可以降到0.1—0.2元/千瓦時，建設(she)規模也將大(da)幅增長。這使得新(xin)能源(yuan)能夠(gou)平穩跨區輸送，現有(you)輸電通(tong)道利(li)用率將會得到進一步大(da)幅提升。

在此階段(duan)，由于儲能技(ji)術日(ri)趨(qu)成熟，成本大幅下(xia)降(jiang)，新建輸電(dian)(dian)通道壓力逐步(bu)降(jiang)低。預期在此階段(duan)的10年(nian)中(zhong)，跨(kua)省區遠距離(li)輸電(dian)(dian)通道規模(mo)將維持在6億—7億千(qian)(qian)瓦，新增跨(kua)省區遠距離(li)輸電(dian)(dian)通道規模(mo)將在5 000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦以下(xia)，跨(kua)區遠距離(li)輸電(dian)(dian)通道利(li)用率(lv)在技(ji)術進步(bu)下(xia)將接近極限，從(cong)而(er)預期新能源輸電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量超(chao)過(guo)3萬(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦時。

碳中(zhong)和(he)階段（2051—2060年）

在此(ci)階段(duan)，社會(hui)主義(yi)現代化(hua)強國(guo)已基(ji)本建成，東(dong)、西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)發展(zhan)差(cha)異將(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)(zhu)漸(jian)均衡。尤其新疆等西(xi)(xi)北(bei)地區(qu)作為(wei)“一帶一路”中(zhong)(zhong)連接歐亞大陸的(de)(de)陸上通(tong)道，預期將(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)(zhu)漸(jian)從(cong)物流中(zhong)(zhong)轉發展(zhan)出若干都市群，使得西(xi)(xi)北(bei)地區(qu)向(xiang)中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)輸電(dian)需求(qiu)和動力進(jin)一步(bu)減弱，甚至西(xi)(xi)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)將(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)(zhu)漸(jian)自我平(ping)衡。這將(jiang)(jiang)會(hui)導致中(zhong)(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)和東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地區(qu)增長的(de)(de)綠色(se)電(dian)力需求(qiu)將(jiang)(jiang)逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)轉向(xiang)由東(dong)北(bei)區(qu)域供給，甚至可以(yi)發展(zhan)出若干由蒙(meng)古國(guo)、俄羅斯向(xiang)我國(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)地區(qu)的(de)(de)輸電(dian)通(tong)道。預期此(ci)階段(duan)新增輸電(dian)通(tong)道規模1億(yi)—2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，其中(zhong)(zhong)主要以(yi)跨國(guo)通(tong)道為(wei)主，最(zui)終跨區(qu)遠距離輸電(dian)通(tong)道規模將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)(da)到(dao)7億(yi)—8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，新能源輸電(dian)電(dian)量達(da)(da)到(dao)4萬億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時。

（作者：孔力，中國(guo)科學(xue)(xue)(xue)院(yuan)電工研(yan)究所(suo)、中國(guo)科學(xue)(xue)(xue)技(ji)術大學(xue)(xue)(xue)碳中和研(yan)究院(yuan)；裴瑋(wei)，中國(guo)科學(xue)(xue)(xue)院(yuan)電工研(yan)究所(suo)；饒建(jian)業、徐英新，電力規劃設計總院(yuan)。《中國(guo)科學(xue)(xue)(xue)院(yuan)院(yuan)刊》供稿）