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2012年(nian)(nian)是我國實現“十(shi)二五”節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)目標的(de)關鍵一(yi)年(nian)(nian)，近日，賽(sai)迪智庫在(zai)京舉(ju)辦(ban)賽(sai)迪學術沙(sha)龍系列(lie)之(zhi)三——工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)論壇，其工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)走(zou)勢預(yu)測(ce)(ce)課題組(zu)發布了《2012年(nian)(nian)下(xia)半年(nian)(nian)我國工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)走(zou)勢分(fen)析(xi)與預(yu)測(ce)(ce)》報(bao)告，對上半年(nian)(nian)我國工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)基本(ben)特點及存在(zai)的(de)主要(yao)問題進(jin)行分(fen)析(xi)，預(yu)測(ce)(ce)下(xia)半年(nian)(nian)我國工(gong)業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)的(de)走(zou)勢并提出政策措(cuo)施建議，為國家節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)工(gong)作提供決策參考。

上半年工業節能減排主要情況

上半年工(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)量(liang)增(zeng)速趨緩，單位工(gong)業(ye)(ye)增(zeng)加值能(neng)(neng)(neng)耗(hao)下(xia)降較快，工(gong)業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排呈(cheng)現出五大基本特點(dian)(dian)：工(gong)業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排形勢好(hao)于預期；四大高載能(neng)(neng)(neng)行業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)量(liang)占工(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)總(zong)量(liang)的(de)比重下(xia)降；部分重點(dian)(dian)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)行業(ye)(ye)淘汰(tai)落(luo)后(hou)產能(neng)(neng)(neng)空間縮小(xiao)，技術節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)難度加大；西(xi)部工(gong)業(ye)(ye)經濟快速發展，節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排壓(ya)力激增(zeng)；重點(dian)(dian)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)企業(ye)(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減排工(gong)作有序推進。

1-5月份，全國規模以上工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)單位增加值(zhi)能耗下(xia)降7.35%，超額完(wan)成年度下(xia)降5%的預(yu)期(qi)(qi)目(mu)標(biao)。四(si)大高(gao)載能行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)總量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重為43.8%，較去(qu)年同期(qi)(qi)下(xia)降1個百分點(dian)(dian)。對比(bi)分析2012年和2011年的工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)淘汰落后產能目(mu)標(biao)任務，煉鐵、煉鋼、電(dian)解(jie)鋁等(deng)部(bu)分高(gao)耗能行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的整(zheng)體技術(shu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)藝裝備已經(jing)處(chu)于(yu)較高(gao)水平(ping)，技術(shu)節(jie)能空間(jian)收窄。1-5月份，西(xi)部(bu)12省工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增加值(zhi)增速全部(bu)超過全國平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)（10.7%），新疆(jiang)、貴(gui)州(zhou)、青海、寧夏的工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增速均(jun)超過10%，遠高(gao)于(yu)全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增速（3.7%）的平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)。“十(shi)二(er)五”期(qi)(qi)間(jian)，對重點(dian)(dian)用(yong)(yong)能企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，國家提出實施萬家企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能低碳行(xing)(xing)動，與以行(xing)(xing)政手段推進重點(dian)(dian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)能企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能減排工(gong)(gong)(gong)作相比(bi)，中小工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)節(jie)能減排工(gong)(gong)(gong)作內生動力不足。

盡(jin)管(guan)上半年節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)取(qu)得(de)(de)較好成效(xiao)，仍存在以下問題，一(yi)是(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)結構重(zhong)化(hua)趨勢尚未得(de)(de)到根本扭(niu)轉(zhuan)。1-5月份，盡(jin)管(guan)輕(qing)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)同比增速比重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)快1.2個百分點，但是(shi)(shi)短期內(nei)還(huan)很(hen)難(nan)扭(niu)轉(zhuan)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)結構偏重(zhong)的(de)趨勢。二是(shi)(shi)對中(zhong)小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)工(gong)(gong)作重(zhong)視(shi)不(bu)夠。一(yi)些落后的(de)工(gong)(gong)藝技(ji)術(shu)(shu)裝備在中(zhong)小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)廣泛使用，中(zhong)小(xiao)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)很(hen)難(nan)獲(huo)得(de)(de)國家(jia)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)改造(zao)資(zi)金支(zhi)持。三是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)西部(bu)地區(qu)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展與節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)存在矛盾。中(zhong)西部(bu)地區(qu)至(zhi)少(shao)有10個省市提出“十二五”經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)總量(liang)翻番(fan)的(de)目(mu)(mu)標，而經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)高(gao)速增長需要工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)重(zhong)大項目(mu)(mu)來支(zhi)撐，中(zhong)西部(bu)地區(qu)面臨(lin)既要加(jia)快經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展又(you)要節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)的(de)兩難(nan)困境。

下半年工業節能減排走勢分析與預測

隨(sui)著國家“穩增長、擴(kuo)內需”的相(xiang)關具(ju)體措施出臺和(he)部分地區一大批高耗能項(xiang)目相(xiang)繼投產，今年(nian)下半(ban)年(nian)工業能源消耗將快速增長，工業節(jie)能指標可能出現(xian)反彈。

上(shang)半年(nian)，國家出臺一系(xi)列(lie)措施(shi)以扭轉(zhuan)經(jing)濟下(xia)行(xing)趨勢。鐵(tie)路、機場(chang)等一批基(ji)礎設施(shi)建設項目(mu)重新相繼開工，拉動(dong)(dong)高(gao)(gao)耗(hao)能(neng)(neng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)(su)發(fa)展(zhan)，推動(dong)(dong)工業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)耗(hao)快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)(su)增長(chang)(chang)。近期，部分地(di)區高(gao)(gao)耗(hao)能(neng)(neng)項目(mu)審批速(su)(su)度加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)，一批工業(ye)(ye)重大項目(mu)即將啟動(dong)(dong)。下(xia)半年(nian)，高(gao)(gao)耗(hao)能(neng)(neng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源消耗(hao)隨著投(tou)資的(de)增長(chang)(chang)和項目(mu)的(de)投(tou)產可能(neng)(neng)出現快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)(su)增長(chang)(chang)趨勢。

盡管(guan)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)產(chan)品惠民工程的實施(shi)和節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)環(huan)保產(chan)業(ye)的發展為節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)減排提(ti)(ti)供(gong)一定(ding)支撐，但(dan)總體來(lai)看(kan)，下半年(nian)全國工業(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)減排形勢不容樂觀。如(ru)(ru)何應對高耗能(neng)(neng)行業(ye)快速擴張？如(ru)(ru)何破解經(jing)濟發展與節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)減排的矛盾(dun)？如(ru)(ru)何抓好中小企(qi)業(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)減排？賽迪智庫工業(ye)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)與環(huan)保研究所提(ti)(ti)出了五點政策措(cuo)施(shi)建議：

一是繼續做好新上(shang)項目(mu)能評環評。加(jia)強工業投資項目(mu)節(jie)能評估和審查(cha),把好能耗準入關(guan)和污染物排放總量關(guan)，加(jia)強能評和環評審查(cha)的監督管理。

二是切實完成淘(tao)(tao)汰(tai)(tai)落(luo)(luo)后產能(neng)任務(wu)。進一步把(ba)落(luo)(luo)后產能(neng)淘(tao)(tao)汰(tai)(tai)落(luo)(luo)實到具(ju)體企業、具(ju)體項目，切實加強落(luo)(luo)后產能(neng)淘(tao)(tao)汰(tai)(tai)工作的督促考核，推動利用市場手(shou)段淘(tao)(tao)汰(tai)(tai)落(luo)(luo)后產能(neng)。

三是加大對中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)業節(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)的(de)支持力度。鼓勵(li)專(zhuan)業化節(jie)能(neng)服務(wu)公(gong)司為中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)業開展節(jie)能(neng)減排(pai)咨詢；針對中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)業推行清潔生產存在的(de)共性問題，研究出臺相(xiang)關政策措施。

四是研究(jiu)制定(ding)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)的工業(ye)節能減(jian)(jian)排(pai)政(zheng)(zheng)策措施。包括(kuo)：區域(yu)工業(ye)節能減(jian)(jian)排(pai)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策、工業(ye)行業(ye)節能減(jian)(jian)排(pai)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策、工業(ye)企業(ye)節能減(jian)(jian)排(pai)差(cha)(cha)異(yi)化(hua)政(zheng)(zheng)策等(deng)。

五是繼續擴(kuo)大(da)(da)節能(neng)產(chan)品(pin)惠民工(gong)程支持范圍。擴(kuo)大(da)(da)節能(neng)家電產(chan)品(pin)覆蓋(gai)范圍；將量(liang)大(da)(da)面(mian)廣(guang)的(de)工(gong)業(ye)耗能(neng)產(chan)品(pin)列入補(bu)貼范圍